President Trump fed a new speculation this week on a meeting with the main leader of China, Xi Jinping, when he told journalists that Washington needed to be cleaned to prepare for a summit between the two leaders in the “not too distant future.”
Trump did not provide details, and China has not said anything publicly about any meeting. The bets of a visit would be high: Trump has imposed tariffs of 20 percent to the shipments of China to the United States and can order another round next month. China wants to try to avoid more escalations in the commercial war that would delay its efforts to relive the besieged economy of the country, experts say.
But before any summit can take place, China still needs answers to two pressing questions: What does Trump want? Who can you talk about Beijing in Washington whom Trump could listen?
To try to answer these questions, China sent academics to the United States to participate in unofficial diplomatic conversations last month with Trump administration officials and American foreign policies. China has been concerned that Beijing officials have been dealing with the State Department and in the National Security Council, which are outside the intimate circle of Mr. Trump, they are not transmitting their messages, some of the academics said.
“We talked about the diplomatic channel,” said Da Wei, director of the International Security and Strategy Center at Tsinghua in Beijing, who was among academics. “That is the normal channel. But can that get to President Trump? Are these people with whom we really know what President Trump is thinking?”
China has also publicly pointed out its interest in conversations. The Chinese Commerce Minister said this month that he wrote a letter to the United States Secretary of Commerce and US trade representative. UU. Inviting them to meet. And Chinese officials describing Beijing’s efforts to reduce fentanyl production last week urged the United States to return to dialogue.
Mr. Trump and Mr. XI made a phone call days before the inauguration of Mr. Trump in January, but high -level communication between China and the United States has been limited since then. China’s main diplomat, Wang Yi, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke at the end of January, and Lifeng vice president spoke with Treasury secretary, Scott Besent, at the end of last month.
Beijing wants to know what Trump wants from China in a possible commercial agreement, as well as how he could respond to China’s wishes. China probably want Mr. Trump to raise rates; After restrictions on US technology exports and Chinese investment in the United States; And it offers guarantees that it will not cause Beijing about Taiwan, the self -governor island claimed by China.
At the same time, China has been trying to stand firm against the Trump administration. Beijing responded to tariffs with countermeasures as levies on US agricultural imports that are calibrated to demand some pain, but also leaves the door open for future commercial negotiations. A Chinese official said that Beijing “would fight until the end” in a “tariff war, commercial war or any other war” with the United States.
But China also believes that a high -level meeting should take place before Trump has the opportunity to impose more tariffs on Chinese products, analysts said. Such movement would raise the tensions between both sides to the point where Mr. XI would seem weak to accept coming to the table.
“The challenge is, can we move quickly enough before the window of opportunity is closed?” Da da said. “When you see these negative signals sent without any positive agenda to compensate them,” bilateral relations continued. “
China can see the lack of urgency on the side of the United States for high -level conversations as a reflection of an effort by Mr. Rubio and the National Security Advisor of Mr. Trump, Michael Waltz, China Stonewall. (Both are considered hawks in China).
“Rubio is not in humor to do anything” in terms of conversations because he considers China a threat, said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at the University of Beijing.
Next month will be critical for relations between the United States and China, analysts say. Trump can impose a third round of tariffs on Chinese products unless there are serious conversations between senior officials, said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies of the University of Fudan in Shanghai, who also attended conversations of rear channels in the United States last month.
“My impression is that at this time there is no substantive contact, much less negotiations” between the two governments, Wu said.
Trump’s forceful force approach for diplomacy, so to speak, is a challenge for China officials. The American leader has shown the will to use economic coercion and strong arm tactics even in the allies of his country. Consider unpredictability to be your signature weapon. Chinese officials often focus on the protocol, maintaining control and on the plate of details before the summits to avoid surprises or loss of face.
Mr. Trump’s comment on Monday about a visit from Mr. XI to Washington was probably more an indication of Mr. Trump’s interest in a meeting with the Chinese leader instead of a reflection of any summit that is really in process, said Evan Medeiros, professor of Asian studies at the University of Georgetown who served as an advisor to Asia President Barack Obama.
It is likely that China wants Mr. Trump to arrive in Beijing, instead of Mr. Xi trip to the United States, as a matter of pride, said Medeiros.
Trump’s officials seem to be worried that any first movement of Mr. Trump to involve the Chinese or visit Beijing would reward China before officials have made any movement to benefit the United States and could lock the United States into a cycle of improvised and unproductive negotiations that characterized previous administrations. American officials may also want to put a firmer agenda at any meeting of this type, to prevent Trump from reaching an agreement with Mr. XI who could compromise the interests of the United States, analysts said.
In the absence of official meetings among governments, other figures are intensifying to present themselves as emissaries. Senator Steve Daines de Montana, who will visit China this week to attend a business forum, said Tuesday in Fox News that he would be “talking to Chinese leadership about what they can do” about fentanyl. It will also discuss China’s purchases of more American airplanes, beef, wheat and other products. China has not commented on any meeting with Mr. Daines.
The toughest question for China is what I deal with, if any, it can be done among countries. Trump administration officials may want China to buy more from the United States, but the challenge is that the United States does not have much to sell, from China’s perspective, said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
The United States refuses to sell high -tech products to China, and some officials consider that Chinese investment is a threat. China has said that any agreement would be acceptable only if it is in line with the principles of the market, which means that the United States cannot simply sell China products at a much higher price to meet a goal.
For now, Mr. Trump may be waiting for his time to build leverage in a future negotiation with China, said Mrs. Sun, dealing with other commercial partners while letting the Chinese “keep in their own juice at the same time.”
Ana Swanson Washington contributed reports.
