Week ahead: FOMC minute, Liberation Day Deadline, GDP of the United Kingdom, OPEC updates to see

• He sat down: OPEC meeting
• MON: German industrial production (May), Swedish Flash CPIF (June), Ez Sentix (Jul), retail sales (May), United States employment trends (Jun)
• SEA: RBA and RBNZ policy ads, EIA STE; German trade
  Balance (May), US NFIB (Jun)
• MARRY: The “Liberation Day” rates enter into force (90-day suspension finals), the EU-EE-EE-rates negotiation deadline. UU. (50% of taxes in all EU imports), minutes of FOMC (June); Chinese CPI (Jun), ppi (June), wholesale sales of the United States (May)
• THU: Bok policy announcement; Norwegian CPI (June), weekly weekly claims weekly, Chinese loans M2 and New Yuan (Jun)
• FRI: Iea omr; United Kingdom GDP (May), Unemployment/Canadian salary (June)

FOMC minute (Wednesday): In it, FOMC maintained the rates of 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with its 2025 average rate projection without changes in 3.9%, indicating 50 bp of cuts this year. Points 2026 and 2027 increased to 3.6% and 3.4% (3.4% and 3.1%). Seven members do not expect cuts this year (instead of four), two see 25 bp of cuts (compared to four), eight forecasts of 50 bp (compared to nine) and two expect 75 bp (unchanged). The forecasts were reduced to 1.4% by 2025 (after 1.7%) and 1.6% by 2026 (previous 1.8%), while unemployment forecasts increased, except in the long term.

The head and central PCE inflation forecasts increased, with an end of 2025 end of 2025 to 3.0% (prior to 2.7%) and 2.4% by 2026 (previous 2.2%). The Committee said that uncertainty has “decreased even more but remains high”, eliminating previous warnings about the risks of stagning, although greater and lower growth maintains those present risks.

In his press conference after the meeting, the president of the Fed, Powell, greatly repeated family comments, saying that a patient approach, waiting and seeing is still appropriate. He stressed that the projections are uncertain and not a fixed plan, recommending an focus on short -term forecasts.

Powell said the time will come for more confidence, but cannot specify when. Given the current labor market and the fall in inflation, the maintenance of rates was the right course, he said, and hopes to learn more during the summer and make better decisions after a “pair of months.”

Powell pointed out a favorable inflation in the last three months, but warned about the next tariff impacts and the highest consumer costs, which underlines the need for patience. He said that rates should be kept high to reduce inflation fully and describe politics as “modestly restrictive”, similar to their May comments that politics is “modest or moderately restrictive.”

Since then, speakers have generally touched that line; However, the influential governors of Fed Waller and Bowman suggested that July could be the time to consider adjusting the policy rate, if inflation pressures remain contained. May’s basic PCE data increased slightly above expectations, but still indicated off inflation (the printed monthly rate +0.2% m/m compared to a +0.1% expected), and although the actual expense of the consumer fell by 0.3% (more pronounced decrease this year), which suggests a weakened demand, the analysts said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said that the data said the data Fed, with a limited pressure to the limited pressure to politics, to more than one subdied policy of the subdies, the analysts, the analysts said that the data support the point of view of the Fed, with the limited pressure to tighten the policy of the most subdiated policies, the pressure of the prices subdiates more subdies.

In addition, the strongest job data than expected for June saw that markets reduce their expectations of Fed features ahead, which reinforces the expectations of prolonged retention. At the time of writing this article, monetary markets have set virtually any perspective of a reduction in July rates, and until the end of the year, prices reduce to a little more than two tariff cuts, aligning with the opinion of the Fed.

Deadline of the United States Liberation Day (Wednesday): The 90 -day rate pause on US imports, authorized as part of the “release day” of the president of the United States, expires on Wednesday, without an extent indicated. The US president, said they will begin to send letters with respect to tariffs, and 10 to 12 countries will receive a letter on Friday, July 4, and rates range from 10%-20%and 60%-70%, while countries will begin paying the new rate on August 1.

Meanwhile, the United States Treasury Secretary, Besent, said he would expect a burst of commercial agreements before July 9 and hope to see that around 100 countries obtain a minimum of 10% of a reciprocal rate, while adding that they will announce several agreements. Capeco analysts suggest: “Given the limited progress to conclude trade negotiations from the day of liberation, there is a risk that large rates are imposed on July 9 after the 90 -day pause expires.

We suspect that more last minute concessions will be made to allow extensions for most countries, but some of the “worst criminals” can be selected to receive punitive treatment. Markets seem to be positioned for a fairly benign result, which implies the risk of short -term turbulence if that does not materialize. ”

UE-US Rate Negotiation Deadline (Tuesday): The president of the United States, Trump, established a deadline of July 8 for a provisional commercial agreement of the United EU-states or a 50% reciprocal tariff for the block. The conversations, led by the EU SEFCOVIC and USTR GERER Commerce Commissioner, focus on ensuring a 10% reference rate in exchange for immediate relief for the key exports of the EU, including cars, steel and semiconductors. Brussels is pressing for a style size of the United Kingdom that offers initial exemptions, that EU diplomats cited by Politico say it is essential to ensure the support of the Member States.

Political adds that the Commission is also pressing for specific reductions in the sector, particularly in pharmaceutical and aerospace products, although officials see a limited scope for the Washington movement. Sefcovic is expected to offer conditional acceptance of the 10% tariff in exchange for short -term concessions, but several details are likely to be resolved after the deadline.

It is said that the EU is weighing four possible results in its tariff conversations with the United States, according to political, citing two diplomats. The worst case is a total breakdown, which causes a leap in 50% tariffs and new levies in sectors such as Pharma and semiconductors. A more moderate result would see the conversations continue during the summer with current tariffs instead.

The best case is a broader framework agreement that includes cooperation with China, although this would probably imply accepting some terms favored by the United States. A “agreement in principle” in the short term could delay the reprisals of the EU, currently detained until July 14, to the medium term. Diplomats see a complete breakdown as unlikely, and negotiations are expected to continue after the deadline of July 8 if necessary.

Within the EU, Berlin and Rome support a quick agreement, even if it requires concessions, while countries like Spain have faced Trump pressure on defense expense and can be more cautious.

OPEC Meeting (SAT): The OPEC+ will celebrate its confabia on Saturday, July 5, and the delegates are expected to approve an additional increase in the production of 411K BPD for August, in line with the rhythm of the increased increases for May, June and July. The desks suggest that the last months have seen the turn of the price defense group to a market share strategy, directed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and EAU, which strongly increased exports in June in the midst of regional security risks.

In terms of compliance, while some members, especially Kazakhstan, remain above the quota, the Bloomberg data suggest that most are producing widely in line with the objectives, after the previous overproduction was compensated with voluntary restriction. Analysts point out that an additional increase would be added to the risk of excess supply in H2, with OPEC+ now focused on recovering the participation of US Shale, which recorded the production of records in April. Market attention will be both in the final size of the walk and in any signal on the application of fees or the future policy address.

United Kingdom GDP (Friday): Expectations are for the growth of m/m in May to choose up to 0.1% from the contraction of 0.3% observed in April. As a reminder, the previous launch saw a greater growth contraction than expected due to the recovery of the solid presentation in the first quarter, which was driven by the export career ahead of US tariffs. Pantheon Macro has a vision of consensus and expects growth to be backed by “a rebound in legal and real estate activity”, which increases the production of services.

That said, the consultancy acknowledges that its projection for the growth of 0.2% q/q seems “increasingly ambitious”, since GDP would need to increase by 0.3% m/m in June. Carrying out a more pessimistic vision for this month’s report is Investte, which expects growth to contract 0.2% m/m. The desk indicates that retail sales metrics and car production data point to contractions in the service and manufacturing sectors.

Looking beyond the next releases, Investec (Lon 🙂 points out that he hopes the can be kicked on the road when it comes to global tariffs, and the current reference rate of 10% remains in place. In this scenario, he hopes that “the economic impulse will be removed in H2, helped by more rate cuts.”

However, there are clearly great risks around this call. From a policy perspective, a soft exit could increase expectations for an August cut. However, more concern is being placed on the part of the MPC in the labor market softening and high inflation.

Canadian works report (Friday): With the BOC in pause and avoiding forward orientation, the Central Bank is gathering by meeting due to economic uncertainty. The next job report will help to shape expectations for the ease of BOC. Monetary markets are only prices at an additional rate for the end of the year. However, a particularly weak report can begin to see two tariffs with more certainty.

The Boca stressed that the labor market has weakened, particularly in the commercial sectors, with unemployment increasing to 6.9%. It also warns that the economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter. The governor of Bock, Macklem, said that what happens with the labor market will then depend critically on what happens with the commercial relationship of Canada-United States.

It will also depend on how much Canada can expand trade within our country and abroad. Macklem also warned that export -oriented companies quickly reduced their contracting plans significantly in response to US tariffs. And with a delay, other companies have reduced their contracting intentions. “If these cuts materialize, we can expect general employment to weaken even more. We are closely observing the signs that weakness in the labor market is expanding.”

This article originally appeared in Newsquawk.