We are more or less clinging to Friday after the Dovish Powell rally. The earnings that enter continue positive surprises. But with the value of 8% of the S&P, the reaction to its profits will be significant about where we are going from here.
With all the expenses of the data center announced by the Giants of the AI, the NVDA numbers will be strong, and there is no doubt that the largest companies will want their patented data to administer data on the site, adding more to the demand (although they can have problems to complete the orders of chips). At this point, it is not a matter of demand, but more of being able to send and meet the demand.
We are already seeing customers resorting to the ability to complete orders. There is also China’s problem, where Nvidia has been given the ability to sell older chips to China to maintain American technology in its systems, along with a rate of 15%, but it will be difficult to include this in guidance at this time. It will be the most observed earnings announcement of the year.
An uncomfortable development is that the performance curve continues to steep. While short -term yields have fallen into the strong perspectives of the FED cuts, the long -term end is not following. The 10 -year treasure performance rises today, +2bps to 4.28%. 30 years +4bps at 4.95%. This will not bring relief to the real estate market.
While bets in a cut of September 25 remain at 85%, and bets for a second cut in October have increased to 45%, and a third cut in December has increased to 35%, bond guards are not ready to offer the long end.
Part of this may be concerns that the lowest short rates can feed, and part is that absolute debt levels continue to increase significantly, and there are concerns about how deep the offer for the American debt of long data, especially by foreign buyers who are beaten with high rates. In a positive note, the positive slope is good for finance, which reached a maximum of 52 weeks today.
In the front of basic products, we are seeing softness in metals, both precious and industrial metals. While energy prices are modestly higher with crude oil by 1% that goes back to $ 64/BBL, and +3% trying to reach $ 2.90/MCF. Energy actions lead today, 1%more. He returned to 98.5, the highest in a week. Crypto is recovering with Bitcoin of up to $ 112.3k
The options market indicates that volatility could boost the price of NVDA 6% shares in any direction, not unusual for the name. Optimism is generally high as reflected in the main indexes that are firmly in the Green after the first hour of commerce, despite a rising vix, now with 14.85.
Tomorrow, we obtain more unemployed claims numbers, which have become the most important Fed approach. The continuous weakness here will not only reaffirm the cutting bets of the Fed, but can lead to lower rates.
The trend is still positive.
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