Solid expectations after an encouraging third quarter
​easyJet is preparing to publish its annual results for the period ending September 2025 on November 25.
easyJet financial expectations:
​easyJet is expected to see an increase in its revenue, profit before tax and earnings per share (EPS):
Fiscal year income: £10.11 billion, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 8.6%.
Profit before taxes: £656 million, up 7.5% year-on-year
​EPS: 65.35p, up 8% from last year’s 60.50p
​The upcoming announcement will be closely scrutinized by investors, particularly after the airline released its trading update for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 in mid-July, providing a significant performance signal.
​According to its third quarter (Q3) trading update, easyJet made an overall pre-tax profit of £286 million, an increase of around £50 million year-on-year, in line with market expectations.
Third Quarter Operating Metrics Show Strong Execution
​The airline’s available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 7.9%, while seat count growth was around 2.0% and revenue per passenger seat closed (RASK) increased by 0.5% year-on-year.
​On the cost side, total cost per available seat kilometer (CASK) remained stable overall, with fuel CASK falling by about 7.3% and underlying CASK without fuel increasing by about 2.3%.
​The airline’s holiday business also performed well, generating a pre-tax profit of £86m, up £13m year-on-year, demonstrating the value of diversification.
​easyJet’s comment along with its third quarter update reaffirmed its expectations for the full year, providing confidence in achieving its planned targets.
​Guidance parameters for the entire year confirmed
ASK growth of approximately 9% YoY (with moderate growth in the second half of the year (H2) to ~7% versus ~12% in the first half of the year (H1)), a reduction in overall CASK total in the low single digits.
​Overall CASK ex-fuel is expected to remain broadly stable, while the holiday business expects full-year PBT in excess of £235m.
​Forward bookings for the fourth quarter (Q4) stood at 67% sold at the time of the update, up one percentage point year-on-year, a positive indicator as customer booking patterns continue to change going forward.
​These metrics suggest that operational discipline and capacity management are supporting profitability despite competitive pressures.
​Key themes dominate investors’ attention
Looking ahead to full-year results, several themes will dominate investor interest.
Firstly, whether easyJet can meet its growth expectations in the second half, particularly in the context of a modest loss in the first half (the company reported an overall pre-tax loss of £394 million for the half year ended March 31, 2025).
Secondly, margin performance will be crucial: can the airline keep cost growth under control while increasing capacity, improving utilization and maintaining returns?
​CASK’s stability and RASK’s modest third-quarter profit suggest operating discipline, but the full-year result will show whether this holds in the second half.
​The vacation business gains strategic importance
Thirdly, easyJet’s strategic focus on its holiday business and network expansion will be reviewed, as the holiday unit has become an increasingly important contributor.
​The strength shown in the vacation segment in the third quarter provides a tailwind, but execution and margin in that business will be examined to determine its sustainability.
​Fourth, liquidity and balance sheet position remain important given the cyclical nature of the airline sector.
​easyJet’s third quarter update said liquidity stood at £4.9 billion as at June 30, around £1.5 billion above its liquidity policy.
​Sector risks remain high
​There are risks that affect the airline sector in general. The industry remains exposed to macroeconomic volatility, from fuel prices, currency swings and labor cost inflation to weak consumer demand.
​In its third quarter update, easyJet said July’s French air traffic control strike and rising costs would cut its profits by around £25m, despite the strong headline figure.
​Furthermore, the industry is competitive and under pressure to maintain yields while managing capacity growth, and easyJet’s relatively modest RASK profit reflects this reality.
​Operational disruptions due to strikes, weather or air traffic control issues remain constant threats to airline profitability and customer satisfaction.
​Analyst rating and technical analysis
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, 5 analysts have a “strong buy”, 7 “buy”, 7 “hold” and 1 “sell” recommendation for easyJet. The average long-term price target stands at 630.83 pence, 36% above the current share price (as of 11/21/2025).
