Economists from Natixis analyze the effects of the insufficient decline in oil prices on inflation.
What slowdown in disinflation due to OPEC’s new behavior?
“OPEC countries cut their oil production in 2023 to stabilize the price. We estimate that OPEC oil production cuts will be 5 million barrels per day in 2023, compared to OPEC’s past behavior, which has been much less sensitive to cuts. oil prices.”
“According to our estimates, this OPEC production cut leads to an increase in oil prices of $30 per barrel, or a 54% increase in oil prices. Finally, the additional headline inflation caused by this oil price increase in 2023 can be estimated at: 0.81 percentage points in the US; 0.70 percentage point v eurozone.”