- Dollar ready to block weekly profits in the Middle East disturbances
- Petroleum rebounds as supply concerns remain high
- SNB cuts for 25 bp, BOE offers Dovish Hold
- Wall Street resumes trade after June.
The dollar is the indicator of the Israel-Iran War
The exchange was mixed with its main counterparts yesterday, losing some land against him, he and him, while surpassing him, he and him.
The dollar addresses its greatest weekly advance in more than a month, since the Israel-Iran air war took market participants to seek refuge in the world reserve currency. The conflict is entering its second week without signs of decrease, keeping nerve market participants due to the possibility that the United States gets involved.
That said, the White House said that President Trump will decide if the United States will join Israel in the next two weeks, which helped to calm investors’ fears about an imminent attack by the United States against Iran. That is the reason why the dollar is quoting without changes or less against their companions today.
RISKS OF IRANÍ Energy Supply Supply Oil Lower
However, the risk of climbing to a broader conflict of the Middle East is still elevated as Israel bombed more nuclear objectives yesterday and Iran shot more missiles and drones after hitting an Israeli hospital. The fact that investors remain worried is evident for the strong rebound in oil yesterday, although prices retired later in the day and today are around $ 75 per barrel.
BOE sounds concerned about the economy and labor market
However, in addition to the Middle East saga, market participants had to digest four main decisions of the Central Bank this week. The Bank of Japan remained on hold on Tuesday, announced a slowdown in its reducing bonds and remained cautious about future walks. Wednesday also stood on Wednesday, but it seemed more concerned about the upward risks of inflation.
Yesterday, attention changed to SNB and BOE. Interest rates reduce 25 pb to 0% and kept the door open to negative interest rates. Actually, there is a 30% probability of a 25 pb rate cut in September.
As for the, he kept the interest rates intact at 4.25% as expected, but this was through a 6-3 vote, with the three dissidents voting for a 25 bp rate cut. The prognosis was only by two followers of a speed cut. Policy formulators said that uncertainty about trade is likely to continue to weigh the British economy, also highlighting the risks of a weaker labor market.
The pound fell a little at the time of the decision, perhaps when investors saw the result as a little more misleading than was previously thought, but the currency recovered quickly and negotiated even more later in the day. This may be due to the comments of Governor Bailey, who said that the expectations of interest rates that gradually move are not a prediction on the August meeting. Even so, there is a strong probability of 57% for a reduction of 25 bp in August
Stock futures point to a lower open today
Wall Street will resume trade today after remaining closed yesterday in the observance of the June holidays. Stock futures suggest that it will open slightly below the levels at which it closed on Wednesday, perhaps due to the aggressive winery of the Fed.
The position of waiting and seeing, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s commercial policies and the fears of greater escalation in the Middle East increase the possibilities of a more significant correction, although the biggest image remains cautiously positively, at least from a technical point of view.
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