Home CryptocurrencyAnalysis Are you just starting the recovery or is it a bull trap?

Are you just starting the recovery or is it a bull trap?

by SuperiorInvest

Bitcoin price picked up momentum and managed to clear $16,500. BTC needs to settle above $17,000 for a real recovery to begin in the near term.

  • Bitcoin started an upward correction and climbed above the $16,500 resistance.
  • The price is trading above $16,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken), there was a break above the main bearish trend line with resistance near $16,220.
  • The pair could continue to rise if it settles above the $17,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin price is recovering

Bitcoin price has formed a decent support base above the $15,500 support zone. BTC remained well bid and started an upward correction above the $16,000 resistance.

There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $16,795 swing high to the $15,470 low. Additionally, there was a break above the major bearish trendline with resistance near $16,220 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin price is now trading above $16,400 and 100 hour simple moving average. It is also well above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $16,795 swing high to the $15,470 low.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $16,800 level. The first major resistance is near the $17,000 zone. A successful daily close above the $17,000 resistance can trigger a real wave of recovery. Another major resistance is near $17,500, above which the price could gain momentum for a move towards the $18,000 zone.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Intermediate resistance could be $17,650. It is near the 1.618 Fib extension level of the main decline from the $16,795 swing high to $15,470 low.

Fresh BTC decline?

If Bitcoin fails to settle above the $17,000 resistance zone, this could trigger another decline. Immediate downside support is near the $16,500 level and the connecting bullish trend line on the same chart.

Another major support is near the $16,250 zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. In the said case, the price may fall towards the $15,500 support zone.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major support levels – $16,500, followed by $16,250.

Major resistance levels – $16,800, $17,000 and $18,000.

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