Retail Bitcoin investors are buying Bitcoin as whales sell off, a pattern that could signal trouble for the asset’s price if history is any guide, according to sentiment platform Santiment.
However, other crypto analysts are divided on how the coming weeks will play out for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Historically, prices tend to follow the direction of whales, not retail,” Santiment said in a market report on Saturday.
Santiment noted that since October 12, Bitcoin whales (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have sold approximately 32,500 Bitcoin. However, Santiment added that “small retail portfolios have been buying aggressively on the dip.”
Bitcoin split between cohorts is a ‘warning sign’, says Santiment
During that time, Bitcoin fell from $115,000 to $98,000 on Nov. 4, representing a drop of about 15%, according to CoinMarketCap. BTC price has since recovered to $103,780 at press time.
Santiment described it as a “major divergence between large and small investors.” Santimiento said:
“A divergence where whales sell while retail buys may be a warning sign.”
Other analysts are divided on how the next few weeks will play out for Bitcoin.
Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph to expect near-term consolidation and some volatility, rather than “a clear run to new highs.”
“We believe ETF inflows in early October boosted the price to around $125,000, before mid-month macroeconomic shocks, a major option expiry, and profit-taking pushed it back toward $100,000,” the analysts said.
On Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a six-day outflow streak that saw outflows of $2.04 billion, according to Farside.
Bitcoin has chances of rising to $130,000 if conditions improve: analysts
They explained that if one-time Bitcoin ETF inflows return to generating more than $1 billion per week and macroeconomic conditions improve, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to rise towards $130,000.
Related: Bitcoin crosses $100,000 as BTC price ‘bottom phase’ begins
Meanwhile, Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis told Cointelegraph that while Bitcoin has historically posted year-over-year gains, “the recent sell-off and collapse of market structure makes it much less likely in the near term.”
“That said, there is still room for significant upside through the end of the year,” Kennis said, explaining that it is still possible for Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs this year if momentum “shifts decisively.”
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