Rough overall oil and refined products traded sideways for the month of October. Rabobank economists analyze Brent’s view.
Brent will touch $100 sometime in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024, but not the average
If gasoline demand continues to weaken, it would be a signal that the economic outlook has also worsened, prompting a financial sell-off in Brent and WTI at $10-12/bbl. However, this will be tempered by the long-term physical outlook and ongoing geopolitical issues.
If macroeconomic concerns continue to affect prices, we could see the low $80s for Brent.
We still believe Brent will touch, but not average, $100/bbl sometime in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.
