Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to close above a key resistance zone last week after briefly rising to around $93,300. However, BTC failed to stop a mean reversion trend, and the price fell below $85,000 on Monday.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s inability to close above $93,000 invalidated confirmation of a bullish trend reversal.
Without new spot demand, Bitcoin could range between $80,600 and $96,000 until one of those levels is retested.
Lack of cash buyers flattens bullish sentiment
Low liquidity and weak order book depth are the main culprits for the current difficulty BTC is encountering in attempting to break above $93,000. Although a dense pool of cost base is around $84,000, over 400,000 BTC purchased in this range have effectively formed a chain floor.
Despite the strong historical accumulation, there has been no active buying pressure between $84,000 and $90,000. Meanwhile, many short-term holders remain underwater relative to their average entry of $104,600, putting the market in a low liquidity zone.
Data from CryptoQuant showed that Binance’s “Bitcoin to Stablecoin Reserve Ratio” has fallen to its lowest level since 2018. This implied an unprecedented accumulation of stablecoins ready to purchase BTC. Historically, such extreme stablecoin-to-BTC ratios on exchanges have preceded major rallies.
While spot demand remains weak, the glut of stablecoins suggests the purchasing power to fuel an increase is available but currently idle.
Related: BTC Price Analysis: Bitcoin Could Drop Another 50%
Bitcoin May Stay Sideways Ahead of Next FOMC
Bitcoin is now stuck between $96,000 (recent range high) and $80,600 to $84,000 (on-chain cost floor). Liquidity pools remained on either side, meaning a breakout in either direction could trigger sharp moves.
From a bullish point of view, a retest of the lower band near $80,600-84,000 could be constructive. That would allow BTC to absorb liquidity on the downside, rebuilding a base before a rebound.
Conversely, an immediate retest of $93,000 to $96,000 without first gathering liquidity below could backfire as sellers could re-enter, risking a further correction in line with the broader downtrend.
Given the current backdrop, a period of sideways consolidation is increasingly likely ahead of the next Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting on December 9-10. As markets watch for signals on U.S. interest rate policy, traders could stay on the sidelines rather than chase volatile moves.
Related: BTC Price Falls Below $84,000 as Bitcoin Faces “Pivotal” Week to 2025 Candle
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
