A general view of the container terminal in Qianwan of the port of Qingdao, a port in the province of Shandong, China, March 17, 2023.
Cfoto | Future publication | Getty images
The growth of China’s exports slowed down more than expected at the beginning of the year, while imports sank, since dazzled domestic demand and American tariffs challenge Beijing’s commitment to reinforce slow growth.
Exports in the period from January to February increased 2.3% in terms of US dollars from a previous year, the customs authority data showed on Friday, which rises to the expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters survey.
That marked the slowest growth since April last year, when exports increased by only 1.5% in the year, according to LSE data.
Imports surprised markets by decreasing 8.4% year -on -year in the first two months of 2025, the most acute fall since July 2023, showed Lesg’s data. Analysts expected imports to expand 1% year after year.
The acute contraction in imports showed that the collection led by the stimulus of the domestic demand of the last quarter has already been partially reversed, “said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of Economy of China in Capital Economics.
Chinese exporters have rushed to the output shipments from the front since the end of last year about the anticipation of more rates when the president of the United States, Donald Trump, returned to the White House.
The first 10% round of Trump of 10% tariff increases in Chinese products entered into force on February 4, followed by another increase in the 10% rate in the skate in just one month later, carrying the accumulative taxes at 20%.
China has retaliation with additional tariffs on selected goods from the United States, including energy and agricultural products, while restricting exports of certain critical minerals that the United States needs.
“As companies expect more mutual rates between the United States and China, there is still some demand for frontal load,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist of Natixis. Due to a higher base last year, along with growing rates, he hopes that China’s foreign trade will remain under pressure in the coming months.
The Customs Agency publishes combined commercial data during the first two months due to the distorting effects of the typically slow season during the Lunar New Year holidays, which fell at the end of January this year.
Despite the growing tariff tensions, Chinese leadership this week established an ambitious growth target of around 5% this year, while recognizing the weak domestic demand by adjusting the inflation target at the lowest level in decades.
The total commercial values ​​of China fell 2.4% in terms of the US dollar in the first two months after the previous year, according to official data.
The United States is still a bigger shopping partner
China’s trade with the United States increased 2.4% in terms of US dollars in the first two months of the year, with exports 2.3% year after year and imports increased 2.7%. The United States remains its largest commercial partner in a single base, which represents more than 11% of China’s total operations.
However, “unless an agreement is reached to avoid tariffs, trade with the United States is expected to soften in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, China’s main economist in ING.
The country’s trade with other important commercial partners, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, fell, due to the drop in imports and the modest export growth. Imports of EU nations decreased 5.6%, while exports grew 0.6%.
China’s exports to ASEAN, a block of Southeast Asia nations, increased 5.7% and imports fell 1.3%.
Steel and rare earth exports fell 3.9% and 0.4% in the year, respectively, while those of high -tech products and ships grew 5.4% and 2.2%, respectively, according to official data.
Meanwhile, imports of agricultural goods from China reduced significantly, with imported soybeans decreasing by 14.8% in the year. Iron and rare land mineral imports fell approximately 30%.
Weak import data showed that any “improvement in real estate and infrastructure is too mild and the trend of [buying] National substitutions for cheaper goods and overcapacity remain, “Natixis’ NG said.
Beijing support
The pressure has been based on Chinese officials to release more forceful stimulus measures to underpin national consumption and housing sector, while reducing the dependence of the economy in exports and investment.
Exports contributed almost a quarter of China’s GDP last year.
When Trump began his second term, he ordered his administration to investigate Beijing compliance with a commercial agreement reached during his first presidency in 2020. The final result of the evaluation will be delivered to Trump before April 1, preparing the stage for new rates actions, economists said.
Since last year, Beijing has tried to increase consumption using exchange subsidies to encourage selected goods purchases. The authorities in January expanded the exchange program to include smartphones and more appliances.
As part of an extended fiscal package, Chinese leaders committed themselves to an annual parliamentary meeting this week, 300 billion additional yuans of Ultra Long Treasury Bonds for the support of consumer subsidies.
Friday’s release stressed the need for Beijing to intensify efforts to boost domestic demand to offer stable growth this year, said Bruce Pang, an attached associate professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
