China’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, compared with 5.2% growth in the second quarter, official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. This number was in line with the market consensus.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% in the third quarter, following a 1.1% rise in the previous quarter, above the market consensus of 0.8%.
China’s annual retail sales rose 3.0% in June, compared with 2.9% and 3.4% previously expected, while industrial production rose 6.5%, compared with an estimate of 5.0% and August’s 5.2%.
Meanwhile, fixed asset investment fell 0.5% year-to-date (YTD) in September, versus an expected 0.2% increase and a 0.5% increase in the previous reading.
AUD/USD reaction to Chinese data release
The Australian dollar (AUD) rose slightly in immediate response to China’s GDP and activity data. At press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.24% on the day at 0.6511.
Price in Australian Dollar for the last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the major listed currencies over the last 7 days. The Australian dollar was strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.65% | -0.66% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -1.02% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | -0.24% | -0.21% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.45% | -0.64% | |
| GBP | 0.65% | 0.24% | 0.08% | 0.73% | 0.71% | 0.70% | -0.42% | |
| JPY | 0.66% | 0.21% | -0.08% | 0.69% | 0.60% | 0.74% | -0.43% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.49% | -0.73% | -0.69% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -1.14% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | -0.49% | -0.71% | -0.60% | 0.13% | -0.02% | -1.12% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.45% | -0.70% | -0.74% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -1.11% | |
| CHF | 1.02% | 0.64% | 0.42% | 0.43% | 1.14% | 1.12% | 1.11% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will be AUD (base)/USD (rate).
This section was published at 1:00 GMT on Monday as a preview of China’s trade balance data.
China’s quarterly GDP report
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release its data at 2:00 GMT. China’s quarterly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in the third quarter (Q3), compared with a 1.1% expansion in the second quarter. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is forecast increase by 4.8% from 5.2% previously.
Meanwhile, September retail sales are expected to show a 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase, compared to 3.4% in the previous reading. Industrial production is expected to show a 5.0% year-on-year increase in the same period, up from 5.2% previously.
How could China’s quarterly GDP impact AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades in the negative for the day, leading up to China’s quarterly GDP, retail sales and industrial production data. The pair is gaining ground as the US dollar weakens due to the US federal government shutdown, which has entered its 19th day without an end.
If the data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the October 15 high of 0.6523. Another level of resistance appears at the September 1 high of 0.6560, en route to the October 6 high of 0.6620.
On the downside, the October 10 low of 0.6472 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a decline to the July 31 low of 0.6424. The next level of contention is found at the psychological level of 0.6400.
GDP FAQ
A country’s gross domestic product (GDP) measures the growth rate of its economy over a given time period, usually a quarter. The most reliable data are those that compare GDP with the previous quarter, e.g. Q2 2023 vs. 1st quarter 2023, or with the same period of the previous year, e.g. 2nd quarter 2023 vs. Q2 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the quarter’s growth rate as if it were constant for the rest of the year. However, these can be misleading if temporary shocks affect growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last for the whole year – as happened in the first quarter of 2020 during the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth fell sharply.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a national currency as it reflects a growing economy that is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported and also attract higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls, it is usually negative for the currency. When the economy grows, people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to raise interest rates to fight inflation, with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, helping the local currency appreciate.
When the economy grows and GDP increases, people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold versus putting money in a cash deposit account. A higher GDP growth rate is therefore usually a bearish factor for gold prices.
