An estimated 20 million people in southern Africa face what the United Nations calls “acute hunger” as one of the worst droughts in more than four decades withers crops, decimates livestock and, after years of rising Food prices caused by the pandemic and war, skyrocket the price of corn, the region's basic crop.
Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have declared national emergencies.
It's a bitter taste of what climate warming is expected to bring to a region that is likely to be severely affected by climate change, although scientists said Thursday that the current drought is driven more by the natural climate cycle known as El Niño. than due to global warming.
Its effects are all the more devastating because in recent years the region has been hit by cyclones, unusually heavy rains and a growing outbreak of cholera.
'Urgent help' needed
This year's rains started late and were below average. In February, when crops need it most, parts of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique and Botswana received a fifth of their usual rainfall.
This is devastating for these largely agrarian countries, where farmers depend exclusively on rain.
In southern Malawi, in a district called Chikwawa, some residents waded into a crocodile-infested river to collect a wild tuber known as nyika to curb their hunger. “My area needs urgent help,” said the local leader, who identified himself as Chief Chimombo.
Elsewhere, livestock searching for water walked into fields still muddy from last year's heavy rains, only to become trapped, said Chikondi Chabvuta, an aid worker with CARE, the international aid organization based in Malawi. According to the group, thousands of livestock deaths have been reported in the region.
The first few months of each year, just before the harvest begins in late April and May, are usually a lean season. This year, with harvests expected to be significantly smaller, the lean season is likely to last longer. “The food security situation is very bad and is expected to get worse,” Chabvuta said.
The FAO noted that, in addition to low yields, grain prices have been abnormally high due to the war in Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, as well as weak currencies in several southern African countries. , which makes the purchase of imported cereals more expensive. food, fuel and fertilizers.
Why is it happening?
According to an analysis released Thursday by World Weather Attribution, an international coalition of scientists focused on rapid assessment of extreme weather events, the driving force behind the current drought is El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean. every few years. years and modifies the climate in different ways in different parts of the world. In southern Africa, El Niño tends to cause below-average rainfall.
El Niño made this drought twice as likely, the study concluded. That weather pattern is now weakening, but is expected to repeat itself soon.
The drought may also have been exacerbated by deforestation, which disrupts local rainfall patterns and degrades soils, the study concluded.
It is very difficult to attribute droughts to global warming. This is particularly true in regions like southern Africa, in part because it does not have a dense network of weather stations offering detailed historical data.
Scientists aren't sure if climate change played a role in this particular drought. However, there is little uncertainty about the long-term effects of climate change in this part of the world.
The average temperature in southern Africa has risen between 1.04 and 1.8 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the number of hot days has increased. That makes a dry year worse. Plants and animals are thirstier. Moisture evaporates. The soils dry out. Scientific models indicate that southern Africa is becoming drier overall.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers southern Africa a “hot spot” in terms of extreme temperatures and drought.
The costs of adaptation.
For the millions of people trying to cope with this drought, it matters little whether climate change or something else is responsible for why the skies have dried out.
What matters is whether these communities can adapt quickly enough to climate crises.
“It's really important to really improve drought resilience, especially in these parts of the continent,” said Joyce Kimutai, one of the study's authors and a researcher at the Grantham Institute, a climate and environment center at Imperial College. London.
There are solutions that require money to implement: early warning systems that inform people about what to expect, insurance and other social security measures, programs to help them prepare, as well as diversify what farmers grow. Corn is extremely vulnerable to heat and irregular rainfall.
golden matonga contributed with reports.
