ether update
Ethereum (ETH) has been navigating complex terrain over the past month, marked by heavy accumulation by large holders even as structural pressures on certain business models deepen.
According to on-chain analytics, whales accumulated approximately 323,523 ETH (approximately $1.12 billion) during the early November sell-off and apparently increased their long holdings last week as ETH approached the $2,600.00 mark.
This buildup suggests that, despite recent weakness, some larger investors believe the current period is an opportunity rather than a selloff.
At the same time, digital asset treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies, one of the largest Ether holding corporations, is under increasing pressure.
Data from research firm 10x Research indicates that BitMine faces an estimated $3.7 billion in unrealized losses as it holds approximately 3.56 million ETH at an average cost of approximately $4,051.00 and current valuations are significantly lower.
The decline in their market net asset value (mNAV) to approximately 0.77 indicates a potentially serious capital raising and market confidence challenge for such treasuries.
These two developments (significant whale buying on the one hand and large losses for a major corporate ETH holder on the other) highlight the divergent dynamics at play within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Large holders appear to be positioning themselves for a medium-term rally, while some corporate structures built around ETH may face structural stress if valuations remain depressed or yield alternatives gain traction.
Looking ahead, the outcome for Ethereum may depend on whether accumulation volumes translate into price momentum and whether pressure on structural holders triggers any knock-on effects on market sentiment.
With ETH down more than 40% since early October and its price remaining within a clear downtrend, there remains a risk that unless demand expands or a new catalyst emerges, holders could continue to face declines, even as whales quietly build positions.
Bearish Ether Case:
While Ether remains below its Nov. 16 high of $3,247.21, the August-November downtrend remains intact.
A sustained decline to the Nov. 21 low of $2,622.43 is likely to reach the Feb. 9 low and March 2 high of $2,549.44 to $2,524.20 and perhaps also the mid-May, early June, and early July lows of $2,387.06 to $2,328.10.
Ether Bull Case:
If Ether were to rise and close daily above its early November low of $3,060.29, it would likely be looking at the November 16 high of $3,247.21. This level would need to be broken for the bulls to regain control of the short-term trend.
