EUR/USD Eyes Monthly Low as ECB Reinforces Dovish Forward Guidance

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD remains under pressure despite the slight improvement in German business sentiment, and the exchange rate may exhibit a more bearish behavior over the remainder of the week as it carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows.

EUR/USD Eyes Monthly Low as ECB Reinforces Dovish Forward Guidance

EUR/USD appears to be on track to test the monthly low (1.0989) even though the IFO Business Climate survey climbs to 95.0 from 94.6 in October as the metric for future expectations printed at 92.1 versus expectations for a 92.5 clip.

Nevertheless, the mixed data set may do little to alter the course for monetary policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) insists that “more information would be needed to reassess the inflation outlook and the impact of the monetary policy measures.”

It seems as though the ECB will stick to the sidelines at its next interest rate decision on December 12 as the account of the October meeting emphasized that “it was important to fully implement the September monetary policy decisions.”

In turn, the ECB may endorse a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future as the central bank reestablishes its asset-purchase program, but the Governing Council may keep the door open to further insulate the monetary union as officials “stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

In fact, ECB President Christine Lagarde insists that “monetary policy will continue to support the economy and respond to future risks” as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. The dovish forward guidance casts a bearish outlook for EUR/USD especially as the Federal Reserve changes its tone and seems to be in no rush to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018.

Recent remarks from Fed officials suggest the central bank will take a break from its rate easing cycle as Chairman Jerome Powell tells US lawmakers that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sees “the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth.”

Moreover, Chairman Powell states that “monetary policy is now well positioned to support a strong labor market and return inflation decisively to our symmetric 2 percent objective” while delivering a speech at the annual meeting of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.

Image of Federal Reserve interest rate forecast

As a result, the FOMC appears to be on track to retain the current policy at its last meeting for 2019, but it remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will adjust the forward guidance when the central bank updates the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in December.

With that said, EUR/USD may face a more bearish fate over the remainder of the year as the FOMC tames speculation for another rate cut in 2019 while the ECB looks to expand its balance sheet over the coming months. Moreover, the opening range for November casts a bearish outlook for the Euro Dollar exchange rate amid the failed attempt to clear the October high (1.1180).

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EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate clears the May-low (1.1107) following the Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with Euro Dollar trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.0879) in October.
  • The recent correction in EUR/USD appears to have run its course as the advance from the yearly-low (1.0879) fails to produce a test of the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement).
  • At the same time, the monthly opening range fosters a bearish outlook for EUR/USD amid the lack of momentum to test the October-high (1.1180).
  • More recently, EUR/USD carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows following the failed attempt to push back above the 1.1100 (78.6% expansion) handle, with a break/close below the overlap around 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) bringing the 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement) region on the radar.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it snaps the upward trend from September and appears to be carving a bearish formation.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 4Q 2019 Forecast for Euro

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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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