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EUR/USD on Monday with the pair held back by technical barriers

by SuperiorInvest


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  • EUR/USD continues to struggle with 1.0800.
  • Eurozone GDP data will be released mid-week after Tuesday's US CPI inflation.
  • ECB President Lagarde will appear at the end of the week.

EUR/USD it tested 1.0800 on Monday, but broad market flows remain tepid to start the new trading week. The light data calendar on Monday will give way to fresh US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Tuesday, and investors will be keeping a close eye on US price growth data.

euro can see the area Gross domestic product GDP data on Wednesday, followed by a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Thursday. Tuesday's US CPI inflation gives way to Thursday's US retail sales.

Daily Market Overview: EUR/USD bounded by bearish 200-day SMA as markets await data

  • A quiet Monday leaves EUR/USD bound in a familiar mid-range.
  • Bullish momentum remains limited by medium technical barriers.
  • Higher lows continue to push higher despite limited momentum.
  • Tuesday's annual US CPI inflation is expected to fall to 3.7% from 3.9%.
  • The forecast for headline headline CPI inflation for January will remain steady at 0.2% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics implemented changed seasonal adjustment methods, December's figure is revised downward from 0.3%.
  • Eurozone GDP growth is generally expected to remain flat at 0.11% for the year ending in the fourth quarter.
  • US retail sales are expected to fall -0.1% in January, compared to December's 0.6% gain.

Today's price in euros

The table below shows today's percentage change in the Euro (EUR) against the major listed currencies. The euro was strongest against the New Zealand dollar.

American dollar euros GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
American dollar 0.22% 0.06% -0.05% -0.09% 0.12% 0.26% 0.17%
euros -0.22% -0.16% -0.27% -0.29% -0.10% 0.04% -0.05%
GBP -0.06% 0.16% -0.10% -0.14% 0.06% 0.20% 0.11%
CAD 0.05% 0.27% 0.10% -0.04% 0.16% 0.31% 0.22%
AUD 0.08% 0.30% 0.14% 0.04% 0.20% 0.35% 0.25%
JPY -0.12% 0.08% -0.04% -0.15% -0.20% 0.13% 0.05%
NZD -0.27% -0.04% -0.20% -0.31% -0.35% -0.14% -0.09%
CHF -0.17% 0.05% -0.11% -0.22% -0.25% -0.05% 0.09%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change shown in the box will be EUR (base)/JPY (rate).

Technical analysis: EUR/USD moves in circles on Monday as 1.0800 proves too slippery

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0800 for the first time since falling back below the key handle in early February. The pair is steadily grinding higher from February's early lows near 1.0720, but the steady upward momentum is seeing plenty of technical resistance.

The pair remains capped by the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) and Monday's test above 1.0800 saw a quick rejection of EUR/USD back to the 1.0770 region.

Despite four straight days of gains for EUR/USD, the pair remains on the bearish side of the 200-day SMA near 1.0830. EUR/USD remains more than 3% off December highs near 1.1150 and the bearish trend sees little upside potential for the pair as the 50-day SMA turns bearish and is set to cross the 200-day SMA to the downside.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro frequently asked questions

The euro is the currency of the 20 countries of the European Union that belong to the eurozone. It is the second most traded currency in the world after the US dollar. In 2022 it charged for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions with an average daily turnover of over 2.2 trillion dollars per day.
EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, bookkeeping for an estimated 30% discount on all trades, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or expectations of higher rates – usually benefit the euro and vice versa.
The Governing Council of the ECB takes decisions on monetary policy at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of the national banks of the eurozone and six permanent members, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric indicator for the euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if it is above the ECB's 2% target, it obligates the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its peers will usually benefit the euro, making the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

The published data assesses the health of the economy and may have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only will this attract more foreign investment, but it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if the economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are particularly significant as they account for 75% of the euro area economy.

Another important data release for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns on exports and what it spends on imports for a given period.
If a country produces a highly sought-after export, then its currency will gain in value purely due to the extraordinary demand created by foreign buyers who want to buy those goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the currency and vice versa a negative balance.

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