- RBA Governor Lowe’s Speech (AUD, 02:00 GMT)
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Wages (USD, GMT 13:30) – Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200,000 in November after gains of 261,000 in October, 315,000 in September and 292,000 in August. Wage growth is expected to slow through the winter as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. The increase in initial and continuing claims since September implies some downside risk to wages. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 3.8% from 3.7% in October and 3.5% of the cycle in September. Hours worked are expected to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in October, while the workweek has held steady at 34.5 for a sixth straight month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after rising 0.4% in October, while year-on-year wage growth is expected to be steady at 4.7%. In the last expansion, we saw 3.5% year-over-year wage growth peak in February and July 2019, before the pandemic increased it to an 8.0% peak in April 2020. The subsequent strength of wage gains allowed for continued robust year-over-year growth in 2022, even as the return of low-wage workers into the labor force is likely to limit wage growth.
- Employment data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Employment in Canada increased by only 6 thousand in November after 108.3 thousand in October. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 5.2% m/m.
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