Home Forex Fourth Quarter GDP Forecast Suggests Economy on Track for Moderate Growth

Fourth Quarter GDP Forecast Suggests Economy on Track for Moderate Growth

by SuperiorInvest

Next week’s official release of U.S. fourth-quarter data remains on track for a modest rise, according to a median estimate from a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report on January 25 that growth slowed to a 1.9% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate), based on today’s revised median.

This is a sharp slowdown from the strong 4.9% increase in the third quarter. However, the current estimate for the last quarter of 2023 suggests that the United States ended last year with a solid, albeit slowing, economic tailwind.

US Real GDP Change

US Real GDP Change

Today’s median Q4 nowcast is modestly higher than that released on January 5, when the median estimate was 1.6%.

This week’s report for December highlights the resilience of the economy into late 2023.

Retail spending rose more than expected last month, convincing economists that consumer activity continues to provide a solid foundation for growth.

“The economy is still flying high enough that economists can knock down those recession forecasts this year,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“For Federal Reserve officials, the economy is neither too hot nor too cold, but it may be fair to make some interest rate cuts in 2024.”

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