- Support for the GBP/USD channel, but the candle in the daily chart reflects a temporary break in the trend.
- Movement indicators signal the potential for deeper correction when volatility is tightening and the bulls try to regain control.
- The weekly GBP/USD graph indicates cracks in the medium term.
GBP/USD is at a technical infection point, the battlefield between the weakening of the bull momentum and the growing bear pressure. Thursday’s candle in the daily chart reflects a temporary break, with a lack of body signaling that the buyer entered to defend the region 1,3390-1.370, despite the early pressure.
While the candle has not yet closed, this type of price action often indicates the rejection of lower levels, or at least the buyer’s interest appearing near key support. It has not yet confirmed the conversion, but increases bets for both sides.
GBP/USD holds key support because sellers are tightening adhesion
GBP/USD broke under its rising channel and now moves above 1.3400 with the main support zone to 23.6% Fibonacci Retraving level of the assembly in January-July near 1.3390.
The price action remains below the 50 -day level of a simple gliding diameter (SMA) 1.3505 and 20 -day SMA at 1.3579, which signals a remarkable loss of short -term bull.
Failed possession of the psychological level of 1,3500 and break under the channel structure suggests that sellers are beginning to promote control.
The movements indicators confirm the shift. The relative strength index (RSI) is currently around 39 years and moves closer to the re -selling area, but not yet completely.
Meanwhile, the average actual range (ATR) sits near 0.00927, showing a daily volatility that compressed to about 92-93 pips. When the ATR closes, the escape often precedes, so traders should observe an increase in volatility, especially near key technical levels.
If the price definitely falls under 1.3390, other objectives of the disadvantages are 100 days SMA per 1.3281, followed by 38.2% FIBO at 1.3144.
With a short -term signal of the trend that the sales pressure continues to build, the bulls would have to get a 50 -day SMA back and recover above the 1,3575 zone to move the short -term sentiment back to their favor.
Daily graph of GBP/USD
Weekly GBP/USD Graph indicates cracks in medium term outlook
The GBP/USD Weekly Graph confirms a bright bear shift. The first warning signal was a sharp rejection from the Supreme in July near 1.3789, marked with a long upper wick. Bear candle from last week followed definitely and closed near the minimum in the support of the canal, reflecting strong and permanent sales pressure. It wasn’t just a pullback, it was a clean move.
The current weekly candle has a small lower wick after Bears has failed to break below 23.6% FIBO on Thursday. However, the whole body of the candle is based on the dynamics of the disadvantages of last week. The absence of a significant lower Knos shows little pressure from the buyers and strengthens the idea that sellers have a clear control at this stage. It is a classic bear’s continuing candle, especially when it comes to forming directly in the critical support area of around 1.3390.
If this price action remained in weekly closure, it would mean a net break below 23.6% fibonacci retraction and could prepare the way to a deeper level of disadvantages, such as 20 -week SMA at 1.3299, followed by 38.2% retracement at 1.3144. Momentum deteriorates clearly and the structure of this weekly candle makes it difficult to argue about a short -term reflection if there is no significant reversal before Friday closure.
The weekly relative force index (RSI) near 57 suggests that the wider trend remains intact, but dynamics clearly weakens.
Weekly USD/GBP chart
WITH GBP/USD The couple is close to critical support and compressed volatility and is approaching the invertation point, and any party entertains the control, can define the direction for the coming weeks.
Pound sterling faqs
Libra Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 NL) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most popular unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, which is 12% of all transactions, according to data 2022 on average $ 630 billion a day. Its key pairs of trading are GBP/USD, also known as a “cable” that represents 11%FX, GBP/JPY or “dragon”, as merchants (3%) and EUR/GBP (2%). The pound of Šterlinky is issued by the Bank of England (BOE).
The only most important factor affecting the value of the pound of ŠTERLINKů is the monetary policy that Bank of England Bank of England. Boe sets up its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a stable inflation rate of approximately 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is to adjust interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Boe will try to increase the increase in interest rates again, which will be more expensive for people and businesses. This is generally positive for GBP, because higher interest rates make the United Kingdom an more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation drops too low, it is a sign that economic growth slows down. In this scenario, the BOE will consider a reduction in interest rates to cheaper the loan, so businesses borrow more to invest in projects creating growth.
It relaxes to measure the health of the economy and affect the pound of pounds. Indicators such as GDP, production and services of PMI and employment can affect the direction of GBP. The strong economy is good for sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investments, but it can encourage BOE to set interest rates directly strengthening GBP. Otherwise, if the economic data is weak, the pound of Šterlinky is likely to drop.
Another significant release of Data for Libra Sterling is a business balance. This indicator measures the difference between what the country earns from its exports and what they spend on imports in the given period. If the country creates a highly sought -after export, its currency will benefit purely from further demand created from foreign buyers trying to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive net business balance strengthens the currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
