President Trump’s trade war has already advanced on the request of retailers back to the season of return to school and the Christmas season. The spring season is as follows, and it is producing just when Trump’s last global tariffs enter into force.
Although the spring of 2026 may seem relatively far in the future, for retailers, it is now the time of the year in which they plan spring orders, and both retail and manufacturing experts say that tariffs will influence the level of activity.
The retail industry warned Friday that the last tariffs can lead to higher prices, less products on the shelves and job losses.
“The continuous high tariffs of key supply countries, last -minute policy changes and new unclear requirements are creating the perfect storm for a difficult holiday season and a challenging spring,” said Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear association. “The most popular brands and retailers in the United States are in a large amount of navigating the unpublished details of the new commercial agreements. While planning for the spring of 2026, they are weighing difficult options: whether to increase prices, reduce jobs or reduce the range of products offered for consumers,” he said.
The United States fashion industry already carries what Lamar called a “huge part of the load.”
In 2024, it represented less than 5% of all imports by value, but represented more than 25% of all rates than the United States government raised.
During the summer months, companies are usually in the advanced stages of planning and placement of orders for the New Year and spring seasons. Now, there is a generalized doubt to make timely decisions for shipping and supply.
“To stay competitive, American companies need clear and final commercial terms now; not uncertainty in layers in addition to the already unsustainable costs,” Lamar said.
David French, executive vice president of government relations of the National Federation of the Retail Federation, said in a statement on Friday that “the binding trade agreements that markets really open by reducing tariffs, not increasing them,” should be the objective of the administration.
NRF warned that “the direct result of tariffs will be higher prices, decrease in hiring, less capital expenses and slower innovation.”
“Retailers have been able to keep the line in the prices so far, but the new tariffs will affect the merchandise in the coming weeks. We have heard directly from small retailers worried about their ability to remain in the business in front of these rates unsustainable rates,” French said in the statement.
CEO Retailers under stress
AABESH of, founder of the Health Company of the Flora Plant, which came to popularity after its appearance at Shark Tank, told CNBC that with a cycle of development and manufacture of products that is between 6 and 8 months, the tariff uncertainty and, in the case of its company, the layers of the Chinese tariff Flora
“Originally, we expected a December launch, and then we pushed it back to spring,” said De.
Now he is looking for the stages of the Tarifa Supply Chain with other countries, such as Vietnam. But he added: “There is no feasible way to make the product here in the United States in our price range.”
Vietnam agreed to a commercial agreement with the US at the beginning of July, which established tariffs in 20%. The conversations between the United States and China are ongoing, and a 30% tariff in layers in addition to other existing rates are currently in force. If an agreement is not reached, tariffs on Chinese products could reach up to 145%. Trump’s officials have said that conversations with China will take longer, but they are advancing.
Jon Gold, vice president of supply policy and customs policy in NRF, said that shipments until the first quarter of 2026 “will undoubtedly be affected by tariffs since the incertive in progress has challenged retailers and their purchasing and supply decisions.”
“Not knowing if certain key suppliers will have new commercial agreements or frames at lower rates or higher rates, it has made it incredibly difficult for retailers of all sizes to plan and properly forecast how it will be seen the next season of purchase and sale. As a result, consumers may be subject to higher costs, as well as less availability of products,” he said.
Xan Hood, founder and CEO of the Buffalo Jackson Trading Co. Leather Articles, said it is promoting fear and uncertainty and spring request with a product cycle to order and receive products that are four to five months.
“When you are under stress, you tend to think in the short term,” said Hood. “But I need to think like a bigger business and make my orders. It is possible that I do not have the resources as a big business, so I do my best. If I take in this nightmare and I do not place my orders, I will not have an inventory. It is a risky movement, but it is the right decision. I do not want to look back.”
Hood said he never thought that his company would be wrapped in a commercial war since he obtains his product both in Mexico and India.
“These two countries should be good partners for the United States,” said Hood. “We still don’t know how it will develop at the end.”
The United States has extended a pause on additional 25% tariffs on Mexican goods, with Trump citing progress in conversations, but India was a somewhat surprising goal of new higher rates than expected to 25%.
Hood said to make the same products in the US.
The commercial war has not only reached the product economy, but Hood’s ability to concentrate on strategy and growth as CEO. He said that the amount of time spent playing countless scenarios and solve logistics problems as a result of tariffs is moving it away from planning in advance. “What used to take 10% of my time since the owner now takes up to 50%,” he said. “The time that I once happened in the development of new products, marketing and strategy is now aimed at the management of tariff -related problems,” he added.
With continuous uncertainty related to Trump administration policies, the health of factories in Mexico and India are important concerns. “The global supply chain is a very vulnerable system. Factories depend on the orders for multiple companies. If they are not receiving orders, that would lead to closures, which could affect future orders for other companies,” said Hood.
Pause orders for ‘regret’ of retailers
Retailers do not want to stop orders, according to the retail consultant and former executive of the retail industry, Jan Rogers, Kniffen, according to the recent conversations he has had. Recently he met with approximately sixty clothing, accessories, footwear and cosmetics vendors, he also divided between the east coast and the west coast. “There were two types of companies with whom I talked, the retailers who did nothing with respect to their assets ‘in order’ and those who ‘paused’ goods and regretted that decision,” Kniffen said. “There was no company or person I talked that they said they were happy to stop. It was 100% agree that the pause was too harmful.”
The orders of the autumn season have fallen, but Kniffer said they are probably 95% of what would be in an “average” year.
“Retailers are doing what they always do when they face more uncertainty than usual, they buy a little less than planned and try to chase if things are strong,” Kniffen said. “They are giving the same point of view about the purchases for the spring season, and I think it is for all those same reasons. Consumers do not like uncertainty. Retailers do not like uncertainty. Therefore, they express some caution about what they are buying for the next season. They prefer that they prefer a little short and would have solid brusted margins and pursue some goods that are too heavy that are too heavy. And they have to be heavier to be what is up to everything in which everything is possible to be what is there to be what there is to be the most intense to be what is when it comes to being clean.
Ordering from China specifically is low and will continue lower, according to Kniffer. “Every retailer who is still in China tells me that they are getting less from China than the past fall and will bring even less in spring compared to the previous year,” he said.
But he added that retailers still see the consumer as solid and demand as healthy. The spending return to school began early and said it seems “stronger than planned, and much better than last year. And I’m not listening to people say that tariffs will be a drag of profitability,” he said. But he admitted: “Without a doubt, I am the most optimistic of analysts in US suppliers and retailers who handle rates with a minimum impact on their upper and lower results.”
Even with the beginning of the tariffs of August 1 in many nations, Mike Short, president of the global company of the logistics company, CH Robinson, said that current commercial investigations and judicial hearings still hang on US companies.
“It is clear that rates and commercial interruptions are far from finishing,” Short said.
Much of that action is outside the retail sale, although it can increase the layers of tariffs that finally break through retail supply chains. For example, multiple investigations are active related to section 232 of the US commercial law, which cover sectors such as wood, pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, aerospace, trucks and pieces of trucks, seafood and critical minerals. “As we saw with Copper this week, these investigations can quickly lead to new rates,” said Short, referring to the 50% rate implemented in copper products abroad.
“The reality is that tariff volatility has become the new normality,” he said.
In his profits on Thursday, Amazon marked the “fears of recession” and the “rates and commercial policies” as potential winds against for the second consecutive trimester. The Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy, said the demand and prices have remained stable so far, and Amazon would absorb higher costs if the tariffs increase.
Kniffen said that in the end, the strong in retail trade will be strengthened while the weak weaken. “Walmart, Costco, Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods and TJX are the five best retailers in the country, so it doesn’t matter where you put them in the” list of affected rates “, they will handle it better than other retailers with whom they compete and simply take share,” he said.
“In retail trade, the winners continue to win, the losers continue to lose until something changes that either the losers disappear. The tariffs are just a bit of kerosene in that fire,” he added.
