NPC set goals for growth at 5%, inflation 2%, official budget deficit 4%of GDP, largely, as we expected. We expect the announced fiscal stimuli partially compensate for the impact of the US -announced so far. We maintain our growth growth prognosis to 4.5%; The disadvantage of the risk to be alleviated by the other stimulus, the Economist Standard Chartered note.
The stimulus to be in advance may be reinforced if necessary
“The meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) began today; Primer Li Qiang outlined Chinese economic and political priorities for 2025 in government work.
“Fiscal policy remains a focus on the market. While the official fiscal deficit was extended to 4% of GDP per 2025, the quota of issuing government bonds (11,86TN) was slightly lower than we expected. Ongoing further details of the budget report (especially other deficit items), our forecast The wide deficit remains 8.4% of HDP, C.1,3ppt greater than 2024 implemented a wide deficit. We think that the current stimulation plan is not sufficient to balance the latest increase in US tariffs and is expected to introduce other stimuli if the growth momentum H1 suggests a significant risk of disadvantages. ”
“The government emphasized the support of household consumption and income. In addition, it has undertaken to stabilize the property and stock Markets, while maintaining technology and environmental development as priorities. On the external front, the government plans to continue opening “one -way”, despite growing protectionism around the world. ”
