How sure is the Middle East of the Global Commercial War?

The global commercial war caused by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, shows no signs of decreasing, with TIT tariffs per eye that martilize the main economies, the market values ​​of the reduction and the perspectives of growth of the attenuation.

The economies involved (North America, the European Union and China) face very uncertain futures. But for the Middle East, which until now has saved additional taxes, there are still reasons to worry, as well as opportunities to take advantage of.

The direct impact of tariffs, such as American taxes on steel and aluminum imports, has a minimum impact on the Middle East, says economists. The Gulf region, for example, represented approximately 16% of American aluminum imports in 2024, led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, told CNBC, Mena Standard Mena economist, CNBC. While these sectors can be affected, analysts say, the coup will be less.

But it is likely that the coup for the growth of a commercial war dams the price of oil, the pillar of the region’s economy. There are also immediate costs for countries whose coins are linked to the dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.

The US dollar has been selling since the beginning of the year, which makes imports for countries with dollar plugs more expensive, a challenge for a region that depends largely on foreigners.

However, the commercial tariffs implemented by the US. This would give an initial impulse to the Middle East countries that expel oil.

But bad news can be ahead, since the oil demand slows down due to the weakest trade and global shipping.

“The macro perspective for Mena (Middle East and North Africa) will be overwhelmed by the uncertainty of the global tariff indirectly through oil prices, to the extent that the uncertainties of the rate and macro continue to be a drag for Brent oil pricesSlim told CNBC.

However, since the 2014 oil price shock, many of these economies have implemented structural reforms and diversification programs in an attempt to reduce their dependence on oil revenues.

“Strengthening the resilience of domestic demand remains the best lever to immunize local economies of global external shocks, in our opinion,” said Slim.

However, despite the diversification efforts, oil “still represents most of the income,” said Edward Bell, an interim chief economist of Bank Emirates NBD based in Dubai.

“For an economy like the EAU that is very open to commerce and acts as a global commercial facilitator through extensive infrastructure and logistics links, a fall in global trade will also be a front wind imposed on growth,” Bell said.

A stronger green back also means that the debt called dollars is more expensive to serve. For Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, who have particularly high levels of external debt, this is an important concern and could cause acute economic pain.

Jordan is the most vulnerable country in the region to rates wars due to its high dependence on the United States, according to James Swanston, a senior economist of emerging markets of Economics Capital, based in London. Almost 25% of Jordan’s exports, mainly textiles and jewels, go to US markets.

“Jordan’s economy is the most exposed to possible tariffs,” Swanston told CNBC.

But the country can find some postponement in its diplomatic ties with Washington: “A size with respect to foreign assistance from the United States after the USAID suspension” was ensured due to Jordan’s strategic importance in the foreign policy of the United States, Swanston said. “This could suggest that Jordan could negotiate quite easily on tariff impacts.”

A significant and positive change for the Mena region caused by tariffs is the impulse of more geographically rationalized commercial corridors.

“For Mena, we believe that this will add Impetu to fast-growing commercial corridors, such as the GCC-Asia commercial corridor that has experienced a long-term growth of 15% and can benefit more,” said Slim from Standard Chartered.

She sees that the increase in commercial volumes mark a parallel increase in financial and investment flows between the states of the Gulf and Asia in particular “, as the Asian companies establish the presence in the Middle East or expand existing companies, adding impulse to the organic growth that we have observed since then since we have observed since then. [China’s] Belt and Road initiative. “

There are other ways in which the Middle East countries, specifically the Gulf States, can mitigate some of the possible difficulties of commercial war.

Trump sees Gulf’s states as friendly with his leadership and wants to take them “to a sphere of American influence and far from China,” Swanston said.

The US president has long demanded that OPEC+, directed by Saudi Arabia, increases its oil production to reduce global crude oil prices. That eventual OPEC movement “was always planned,” said Swanston, “but Trump’s statement to demand that they do so, whether he has provided the group’s coverage. [so that they] It seems to meet the president’s request. ”

In addition, Trump’s suggestion that his first visit to the foreign state is the Saudi kingdom suggests an opportunity for Riyadh, and perhaps other Gulf States, to further strengthen ties with the current White House to better protect himself from the consequences of the rate.

The expansion of commercial relations with a wide range of countries remains key to many of these economies, and the EAU have done so with a particular success, says the Emirates NBD. It highlights the fact that Abu Dhabi has signed integral agreements of Economic Association (CEPA) with markets that are worth about 40% of the total exports of the EAU.

“We hope that impulse builds more commercial relationships that reduce costs and reduce friction to stay,” said Bell, “even in the middle of the global anxiety of a broader commercial deceleration.”