The owners of stores of a “Takoyaki”, 70, or Octopus Balls, restaurant chat while cooked by a street in the Tokyo Ward Taito area on February 21, 2025.
Richard A. Brooks | AFP | Getty images
Japan inflation grew 3.6% year after year in March, marking three consecutive years in which the main inflation figure is above the 2% target of the Bank of Japan.
The figure was less than 3.7% observed in February.
The so -called “nucleus” inflation rate, which eliminates fresh food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the BOJ, rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in the previous month.
Central inflation in the country, which eliminates fresh food prices, reached 3.2%, in line with Reuters expectations. This was also compared to the 3% rise in February.
The data launch occurs when Japan is locked in commercial conversations with the United States, with the president of the United States, Donald Trump, writing that “great progress has been made.”
The second largest economy in Asia had been reached with 25% in car imports as of April 3, and 25% of the steel leaflets and aluminum entered into force on March 12.
However, Trump has suspended his “reciprocal” tariffs of 24% in Japan for 90 days, leaving a reference rate of 10%.
A solid inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy.
However, with the tariffs of the United States that are coming, Japan’s GDP could face the pressure down and limit the boxwood space for tariff walks.
This opinion was shared by Nomura analysts in a note of April 16, which said they review their perspective of two walks to a walk by Boj now as of March 2027. Nomura now expects the Boj to walk only once, in January 2026.
Nomura hopes that the true GDP of Japan will grow in “near zero” of a quarterly quarter in the quarter from July to September 2025 due to Trump’s rates.
As such, it is likely that salary growth, which is a lagged indicator, is pressed down at the time of 2026 Shado, or spring salary negotiations, according to Nomura. This would probably make the Boj Boj increase rates during or after Shado 2026.
