​The improvement in the first semester lays positive foundations
​Kingfisher is approaching its third quarter (Q3) trading update on November 25 and investors are closely watching for signs that operational improvements seen in the first half of the year are beginning to translate into more consistent sales momentum.
​The group’s half-year results to 31 July 2025, published at the end of September, provided a more encouraging backdrop than at the start of the year, with the company achieving underlying like-for-like sales growth of around 1.9%.
Performance outperformed key competitors in several markets, with management emphasizing that strong execution, improved online performance and continued traction on commercial customer initiatives had helped stabilize the business.
​Although consumer confidence remains fragile in the UK and mainland Europe, operational improvements suggest Kingfisher is gaining ground.
​Operational progress evident across multiple metrics
​The half-year figures showed progress on several fronts: operational discipline improved, e-commerce growth remained resilient and Kingfisher increased its share of core categories across its core brands.
​Including B&Q, Screwfix, Castorama and Brico Dépôt, all of which contributed to the overall performance improvement.
​Management highlighted strong improvements in supply chain availability and efficiency, and the company also reiterated its commitment to cost control.
​This element has become central given the inflationary pressures in the labor, fiscal and logistics spheres that affect the entire retail sector.
​Updated guidance reflects increased confidence
​Notably, the group lowered and slightly improved the top end of its guidance for full-year adjusted pre-tax profit and free cash flow.
​This sign of increased confidence following better-than-expected business performance in the first half provides encouragement for management’s prospects.
As the company nears its third-quarter announcement, the central question is whether this improved momentum has been sustained through the crucial late summer and early fall trading period.
​In the comparable quarter last year, Kingfisher posted sales of around £3.2 billion, but reported a like-for-like decline of around 1.1%, with weakness in higher price ranges.
​The most expensive categories face special scrutiny
The company noted at the time that while August and September had shown some resilience, October had been slowed by weak consumer demand – particularly in France – and poor weather conditions.
​Therefore, this year’s third quarter update will be closely watched to see if core categories continue to strengthen and if major segments are showing signs of recovery. Such as kitchen, bathroom and garden projects, which typically represent higher value transactions and stronger margins.
​Kingfisher’s strategic priorities also frame expectations for this upgrade, with ambitions for further growth in business customer penetration and e-commerce market expansion.
​Strategic initiatives require validation
​The half-year results highlighted promising progress in business customer penetration and e-commerce market expansion, with business sales continuing to grow faster than multi-banner retail and online penetration improving thanks to market expansion and better integration of click-and-collect services that leverage the physical store network.
The upcoming update will help clarify whether that momentum is accelerating or stalling as the company executes its digital and commerce-focused strategies.
However, risks remain significant, affecting the entire home improvement sector and Kingfisher’s ability to maintain momentum.
​External headwinds create ongoing challenges
​Consumer confidence in the UK, France and Poland continues to face pressure from the broader macroeconomic environment affecting discretionary spending patterns. Wage and tax increases, including higher employer contributions to National Insurance in the UK, add cost pressure to operations which must be carefully managed.
​The largest categories remain sensitive to interest rate expectations and household investment decisions, creating volatility in these important margin-contributing segments.
​Kingfisher has tried to manage these pressures through strict cost controls and efficiency programs, but the third quarter figures will reveal how effective they are.
The update serves as proof of sustainability
​In essence, the November 25 trading update will serve as a key indicator of whether Kingfisher’s improvement trajectory in the first half is sustainable.
If the company can demonstrate greater strength in its core ranges, resilient demand in its largest markets and continued gains in trade and e-commerce, the upgrade could reinforce a continuing recovery narrative.
​Conversely, renewed weakness in comparable sales – particularly in France or in high-priced categories – would highlight that the macroeconomic environment remains a difficult headwind.
​Even if the company performs well operationally, external factors could limit the scope of recovery.
​Kingfisher technical analysis and analyst rating
​Kingfisher’s share price, which is up around 17% so far this year, has been rejected by its September 2024 and May 2025 resistance area of ​​317.60p to 333.5p in late October, when its share price hit a more than one-year high.
