- Libra of Šterlinks against the US dollar almost 1.3400 before a number of US economic data, especially the issue of Q1 GDP.
- The US economy is expected to have grown at a slight rate of 0.4%in March in January.
- Boe Greene expects Trump’s tariff policy to be a pure disinflation for the economy.
Libra Sterling (GBP) corrects almost 1,3400 against the US dollar (USD) at Wednesday’s European session from a fresh three -year -old maximum of 1.3445 published on Tuesday. The GBP/USD The couple is slightly decreasing because the US dollar (USD) checks higher in front of a number of key US (USA) key economic data, in particular the preliminary release of domestic data (GDP) in the North American session.
The US Office for Economics Analysis It is expected that bea) will announce that the economy has grown at a slower rate of 0.4% on an analized basis, much lower than the previous reading 2.4%. Economists expected a slight GDP Growth of expectations of slowing economic activity in the face of hefty tariffs stored by US President Donald Trump at the beginning of this month.
Trump’s other tariffs on his business partners led to an increase in global economic uncertainty, even in the US. Theoretically, Trump’s protectionist policies should make the domestic industry to increase their production to compensate for lower imports, but the constantly changing headlines from the White House over import duties forced them to suspend their expansion plans.
In addition, investors will focus on employment of employment Q1, ADP employment data for April and personal consumption and expenses Price index (PCE) Data for March. The cost of employment costs, which measures a change in the total cost of employees, is expected to be increasing by 0.9%. In the US private sector, employers are expected to hire 108,000 fresh workers in April, which is significantly less than 155,000 in March.
Meanwhile, the main data on PCE inflation, which is the preferred inflation breakup of the Federal Reserve (Fed), increased by 2.6%, slower than the 2.8% increase that was observed in February.
Symptoms of releasing the growth of jobs and inflation pressure on cooling would increase the expectation of the market that the Fed could reduce interest rates at the June meeting of policy. According to CME Fedwatch, there is 65% chance that the central bank will reduce interest rates in June. To meet politics in May, traders are almost fully determined in the fact that the Fed maintains interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.
Fed officials said interest rates should remain on their current level until they get clarity, as the new economic policies of Donald Trump make an economic outlook. On Tuesday Trump criticized the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell Again for non -discipline of interest rates, while commemorating the first 100 days in the office. Trump did not mention Powell expressly, but his comments and the past record indicated with him.
“You shouldn’t criticize the Fed, you should let it do your own thing, but I know much more than interest rates, believe me,” Trump said.
Movers Daily Digest Market: Libra Sterling is traded below against their peers
- The pound of Šterlinky on Wednesday in the European trade hours on Wednesday, as merchants have more and more convinced that the Bank of England (Boe) will reduce interest rates by 25 Basic Points (BPS) at their meeting of monetary policy on May 8. Boe Doviš was accompanied by economic growth (Great Britain).
- Polivinka Boe Megan Greene said the potential trade war would be a “pure disinfectant” for the British economy for the British economy in discussion with the Atlantic Council Think Tank on Friday. Greene warned against shock waves on the labor market, due to the increase in employers’ contribution to social security systems to 15% of 13.8%, which came into force this month.
- Last week, Governor Boe Andrew Bailey emphasized the need to consider the risk of trade war by the central bank. “We have to take the risk of growth very seriously, Bailey said on the outskirts of spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington.
- This week, the UK economic calendar has nothing important. Therefore, the external forces would be a key driving force of the British currency.
- The pound of Šterlinky remained supported against the US dollar in the middle of increased uncertainty about the US trade war. Washington wants China to start business discussions with them, given its significant reliance on their exports to the US. “I believe it is on China to de-eskal because they sell us five times more than we sell, Bessnt told Squawk Box CNBC on Monday. Meanwhile, Beijing promised to fight the customs war to protect her interests and dignity.”
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains mainly key EMAS
The pound of Šterlinky for nearly 1.3400 against the US dollar from a three -year maximum 1.3445. However, the overall view of the couple remains bull, because all short -term exponential moving diameters (EMA) decrease higher.
14 -day Relative Force Index (RSI) after cooling at 60, currently around 65, which indicates the revival of the trend.
On the other hand, the 1,3600 wheels will be a key obstacle for a couple. Looking down, April 3 will be around 1,3200 to act as the main support area.
Pound sterling faqs
Libra Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 NL) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most popular unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, which is 12% of all transactions, according to data 2022 on average $ 630 billion a day. Its key pairs of trading are GBP/USD, also known as a “cable” that represents 11%FX, GBP/JPY or “dragon”, as merchants (3%) and EUR/GBP (2%). The pound of Šterlinky is issued by the Bank of England (BOE).
The only most important factor affecting the value of the pound of ŠTERLINKů is the monetary policy that Bank of England Bank of England. Boe sets up its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a stable inflation rate of approximately 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is to adjust interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Boe will try to increase the increase in interest rates again, which will be more expensive for people and businesses. This is generally positive for GBP, because higher interest rates make the United Kingdom an more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation drops too low, it is a sign that economic growth slows down. In this scenario, the BOE will consider a reduction in interest rates to cheaper the loan, so businesses borrow more to invest in projects creating growth.
It relaxes to measure the health of the economy and affect the pound of pounds. Indicators such as GDP, production and services of PMI and employment can affect the direction of GBP. The strong economy is good for sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investments, but it can encourage BOE to set interest rates directly strengthening GBP. Otherwise, if the economic data is weak, the pound of Šterlinky is likely to drop.
Another significant release of Data for Libra Sterling is a business balance. This indicator measures the difference between what the country earns from its exports and what they spend on imports in the given period. If the country creates a highly sought -after export, its currency will benefit purely from further demand created from foreign buyers trying to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive net business balance strengthens the currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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