- USDIndex – Slips again as EUR and YEN see demand. The final FedSpeak remained hawkish as the news blackout began. 88-90% chance of a 75bp increase from 57% last week.
- euros – ECB looking at 2% interest rates (currently 0.75%) to get inflation to the 2% target (currently 9.1%). Exemptions for 2024 2.4% and 2% until 2025. The market expects 2-3 more rate hikes by December. It is now trading at 1.0100.
- JPY Government spokesman (Kihara) – need to take action to limit ‘excessive’ yen declines, stops short of calling for BOJ intervention. However, USDJPY rose from a test of 142.00 on Friday to 143.25 now.
- GBP Trades on 1.1643 despite the earlier omission of GDP. London remains quiet (politics suspended) but open ahead of the Queen’s funeral next Monday (public holiday).
- Stocks U.S. stocks rose again as the dollar and yields cooled (S&P 500 4,067) FUTS is trading at 4076. Asian stocks have also rallied and European FUTS are higher ahead of the open.
- USOil it peaked at $87.50 on Friday due to further supply issues. It is now trading at 86:30. The 20-day moving average is $90.00.
- Gold – also rallied to $1728 and holds the key 1700 dollars now for $1720.
- BTC – gathered higher again, poignantly 22.2 thousand dollars earlier from a low of $18.5,000 last week. It is now trading at 21.7 thousand.
Overnight and today – UK Monthly GDP Misses (0.25 vs 0.5%), ECB Analyst Survey, ECB Speeches by Schnabel & de Guindos.
The biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+1.01%). He continues to rally from the test 142.75 on Friday it trades at 144.80 Now. MA aligned above, MACD histogram and signal line positive and rising, RSI 72.56 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00142, daily ATR 0.00850.
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Chief Market Analyst
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