- USDIndex – Slips (108.00 tested) for the fifth day in a row, lifting EUR and GBP. Fed Funds Futures back to 90% chances of 75 bp (third in a row) increase. The 10-year bond auction was weak, filling only after it hit 3.33% (2.76% most recently). “Higher for longer” mantra from Reuters survey¹. Has inflation peaked?
- euros – Trades on 1.0135 now from the test 1.0200 yesterday.
- JPY markets are not convinced that BOJ intervention is imminent. Even if only today against others still weak vs. USD, touched 143.50 yesterday and holds 142.30 Now.
- GBP tpassed over 1.1700 yesterday and holds 1.1723 now according to good job data. London remains quiet (politics suspended) but open ahead of the Queen’s funeral on September 19 (bank holiday).
- Stocks U.S. stocks rose again as the dollar and yields cooled (S&P500 +1.06% 4110) Shop FUTS at 4121. Nasdaq Best Performer (APPL +3.85%, PTON +7.18%). Asian stock markets also rallied and European FUTS are higher ahead of the open.
- USOil on the top $89.00 on Monday for more chatter about supply issues and a possible easing of geopolitical tensions. Trades on $86.75 Now. The 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
- Gold – also gathered to 1735 dollars and it holds 1720 dollars Now.
- BTC – has also rallied above and is holding 22.3 thousand dollars.
Overnight and today – Jobs in the UK (wages lower and unemployment rate down, number of applicants turned around sharply (+20.8 thousand) German HICP (still at 8.8%). To come German ZEW and US CPI.
The biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.51%) Signs a 6-week rally from 90.00, possible cooling. On the top 98.45 earlier back under 98.00 on 97.76 Now. MA aligned lower, MACD histogram and signal line positive but bearish, RSI neutral 43.20, H1 ATR 0.174, daily ATR 0.972.
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Chief Market Analyst
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