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Moderna faces challenges as the pandemic makes it easier

by SuperiorInvest
Moderna key statistics
4th quarter 2022 (estimated) Q4 2021 Q4 2020
Adjusted EPS/(Loss) $3.74 $11.39 ($0.64)
Revenues 5 billion dollars 7.2 billion dollars 571 million dollars
research and development costs 1.1 billion dollars 633 million dollars 743 million dollars

Source: Visible Alpha

The expected results reflect both higher overall vaccination coverage and continued downward trends in infection worldwide compared to the previous year.

We expect these trends to continue, Visible Alpha’s consensus forecast predicts a marginal loss and a significant one for the company in the current quarter profit decrease for the whole year.

Analysts are also predicting losses of about $2 billion next year, especially as the company ramps up its research and development (R&D) efforts to expand beyond its reliance on a COVID-19 vaccine.

Vaccine saturation

Investors had been anticipating declining profits for many months modern. Despite a 52% gain in the fourth quarter, the company’s stock still closed 2022 with a 29% loss and is down another 7% so far this year. By comparison, the benchmark S&P 500 Biotechnology Index rose 19% in the fourth quarter and 13% in 2022.


The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) first approved Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use in mid-December 2020. His revenues it shot up to $570.8 million this quarter from $14.1 million a year earlier, and will hit $1.9 billion next quarter, amid a rapid rollout of the vaccine.

However, as vaccination coverage increased, revenue declined quarter-on-quarter in each of the first three quarters of 2022.

An estimated 72% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, rising to 82% in North America and 94% in China. As these percentages increased, the number of doses administered decreased.

In the US, vaccinations peaked in mid-April 2021, when 3.4 million doses were administered each day. A year later, that number dropped to around 525,000 and continued to decline for the remainder of 2022.

Doses increased slightly in the US, Germany, Brazil and Australia in the fourth quarter. among other areas. This coincided with the global number of COVID-19 cases rising to a weekly high of 44.3 million in mid-December.

But the number of cases has been falling as fast as it has been rising, with just 567,486 confirmed cases worldwide last week. Meanwhile, global deaths from COVID-19, totaling 50,000 to 100,000 each week for most of 2021 and early 2022, reached 2,800 last week — the fewest since the pandemic broke out in early March 2020.

Omicron Booster is not expected to stop the decline in sales

The declining death rate from COVID-19, even during periodic spikes in confirmed cases, appears to confirm what public health officials have long promoted: Vaccines can help protect against infection and reduce its severity.

Meanwhile, Moderna has developed updated vaccines and boosters aimed at more effective protection against the new Omicron variants that are now appearing routinely.

The FDA approved the use of these versions in late August, which is likely to help boost the company’s total vaccine sales in the fourth quarter by 49% over the third quarter.

But analysts expect that progress to be short-lived: Visible Alpha projects $1.8 billion in sales in the current quarter, the lowest since the quarter in which the FDA first cleared COVID-19 vaccines for public use. On a year-over-year basis, Moderna’s sales are likely to decline between 20% and 70% in each quarter of 2023.

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