Petroleum prices recovered on Friday after the Vice Prime Minister of Russia suggested that the OPEC+ oil sign could reverse a plan to increase crude oil production.
Alexander Novak said that while OPEC+ would proceed with a plan to start pumping more oil in April, the group could “always play in the other direction” if the market was applied excessively.
In response, the price of Benchmark Brent Crude, which has been sinking since mid -January for concerns about too much offer and the prospects for global economic growth, increased up to 2.8 percent to more than $ 71 per barrel, and then quoted about $ 70.20.
In a greater impulse to prices, Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy of the United States, said that the United States plans to buy $ 20 billion of oil to fill its strategic oil reserve “near the top.”
Kazakhstan officials, who has pumped well above his official OPEC share, promised to reduce production in March, April and May. The country’s fee is just under 1.5 million barrels per day (B/D), but production has recently increased in its tense field, and Oilx analysts, a data company, estimated that the country’s production exceeded 2MN B/D in February for the first time in more than a year.
The increase in prices on Friday occurred after anxiety for an imminent excess of oil, and the main producers apparently increased their production, even as concerns about the health of the United States economy and the impact of the commercial tariffs of President Donald Trump grow.
The price of Brent, which increased above $ 82 in mid -January, fell below $ 70 this week only for the third time since before the Invasion of Ukraine of Russia 2022.
The concerns were aggravated by a surprise statement on Monday of the OPEC+, which has been retaining several million barrels per day from the market to prop up prices, which would now begin to increase production.
“The economic environment looks turbulent,” said a great merchant. “The market was going to be excessive, particularly at the end of this year.”
The market received additional shaking on Tuesday when Peter Navarro, a Trump commercial advisor, suggested in Fox News that if oil fell to $ 50 per barrel, it would help to domesticate inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to begin to reduce interest rates.
The Trump administration has repeatedly said that he would like to see the cheapest oil, despite the fact that a significant fall would also harm the United States oil industry.
The analysts of Rapidan Energy Group said that they assume that the White House “wants the crude profitable. “
However, the OPEC+ decided to move forward with a small planned increase for production, the first step to return about 2.2 million barrels per day in the next 18 months. The analysts said the decision was backed by data that show that the inventories had fallen and needed to recover.
OPEC+ also wants to stop the behavior of Iraq and Kazakhstan, who have been pumping over their agreed quotas, analysts say.
The great merchant said: “OPEC tells them that if they enter online, the market is balanced until the end of the year, if not, the market will be applied excessively. The faster those boys calculate it, the better for the market. “
However, a person who met OPEC+ staff recently said the poster is “incredibly worried” about the global economy. “In all the years I have talked to OPEC, I’ve never seen them so worried,” added the person.
Martijn Rats, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, reduced its target price for $ 5 per barrel at $ 70 for the second quarter and $ 67.50 for the last six months of the year. “OPEC wants to prove if the market can maintain a greater offer,” he said in a note. But he added that none of the recent economic data launches in the United States was support for oil demand.
In addition to uncertain growth in the United States, the Chinese demand for diesel and gasoline seems to have reached its maximum point due to the rapid deployment of electric vehicles. China’s crude oil imports fell 5 percent in the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to customs data published Friday.
The National Development and Reform Commission of the country said this week that it wants refineries to slow down their fuel production and change to make more petrochemicals. China’s National Statistics Office said in its annual report last week that the country’s crude oil consumption had fallen 1.2 percent in 2024.
“Together, the demand looks uncertain and all important barrels continue to flow,” said the great merchant. But he added that with China’s reserves they look thin, the country would take advantage of the lowest prices to replenish its reserve, placing an apartment under prices to prevent them from falling beyond the “60 bass.”
