Mixed signals before the crucial update
Kingfisher enters the next commercial update, on Tuesday, September 23, under a cloud of cautious optimism, since the past results have revealed strengths and winds against substantials that investors will be interested in seeing approached. The Retail for the United Kingdom’s home has already shown some resistance in its most recent results of the whole year, but the degree to which this resilience will take place in the update of next week is uncertain.
In its most recent fiscal year until January 2025, Kingfisher reported a 7% drop in adjusted profits before taxes, up to £ 528 million, while sales fell by approximately 1.5%. Much of the weakness arose from the discretionary elements of “large tickets”, and the performance in its French operations was particularly poor.
In that context, the company has been described by 2025/26 profits in the range of £ 480- £ 540 million and free cash flow between £ 420- £ 480 million. The measures to control costs, reduce inventory and improve operational efficiency have already been in motion.
These recent trends prepare the scenario for which investors will observe closely in the next update, particularly if the company’s strategic initiatives are beginning to offer measurable improvements.
United Kingdom operations provide relative force
In the commercial update next week, the attention will probably fall on how the business of the United Kingdom and Ireland of Kingfisher is being maintained, particularly under the B & Q, Screwfix and Tradepoint banners.
Previous reports have shown that the United Kingdom operations have been more resistant than many of the continental units, benefiting from the demand for seasonal and trade products lines, together with a strong impulse of electronic commerce.
If these trends continue, they can help compensate for softness in other places and provide evidence that Kingfisher’s approach in commercial customers and digital channels is paying dividends.
The performance of Screwfix, which is addressed to professional merchants, will be particularly important since this segment has shown greater resistance to economic pressures than the DIY consumer market.
Continental operations face winds against persistent
On the other hand, the signs of greater weakness in France and Poland can reduce expectations. France has been a drag, which reflects the weak feeling of the consumer and macroeconomic pressure, and Poland has demonstrated volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
The weakest demand in certain categories of large tickets has affected both markets, and consumers deferred the important household improvement projects during periods of economic uncertainty.
Any new evidence that these winds against intensify could greatly weigh the perspectives and reinforce concerns about Kingfisher’s exhibition to the challenging European markets.
The company’s ability to navigate these regional challenges while maintaining the general performance of the group will be crucial for the confidence of investors in the future.
Cost pressures require strategic response
Analysts will also focus on whether Kingfisher refines their orientation again, especially with respect to profit margins, costs and cash flow. Government’s budgetary measures both in the United Kingdom and France have increased costs through taxes, employer and regulation contributions.
Kingfisher has already recognized that these will have retail profits for dozens of millions of pounds, and how the company plans to mitigate these impacts will be important to maintain profitability objectives.
Potential mitigation strategies include store efficiencies, supply chain settings or rebalance the combination of products towards higher margin categories that can better absorb cost increases.
The effectiveness of these cost control measures will be crucial to maintain the gain orientation range and demonstrate the ability of management to adapt to changing regulatory and economic conditions.
Kingfisher analysts
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, most analysts qualify Kingfisher as a ‘retention’ or a ‘sale’ with only one that has a ‘solid purchase’ recommendation. The average pricing objective of long -term shares is around 290p, around 16% above the current price of shares (as of September 17, 2025).
