Rate and strength time in US dollars: why this cycle can be developed differently

Do you know what is happening in the market of precious metals and at the time?

It is difficult to believe when observing the changes in daily prices or when tracking intra -intradia movements, but in general … nothing happens. At least nothing out of the ordinary, given the pause after the rupture of the USD index.

The USD index is consolidating, and although it moved very insignificantly below its April minimum, it remains clearly above its decline support line, which is the clearest indication that the trend has already changed.

As the USD index remains above its decline support line, the ETF Vaneck Junior Gold Miners (NYSE 🙂 remains below its ascending resistance line. GDXJ confirmed breakdown implications are still very intact.

In addition, it seems that given the imminent rate deadline, it seems that we will see a background and then the force in the USD index any day (or time) now. This is based on what we saw previously during the terms related to the rate.

Rate deadline extension analysis

The previous situation of the deadline of tariffs focused around June 1, 2025, when Trump initially threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union. However, on May 25, 2025, only 6 days before the deadline, Trump agreed to postpone this deadline until July 9 after a phone call with the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. This represented a clear last minute flexibility pattern that the markets began to anticipate.

Julio’s deadlines presented a more complex scenario, with July 8, marking the expiration of a 90 -day pause in “reciprocal tariffs” and July 9 is the extended deadline of the EU. It is important to note that Trump pointed out his much earlier flexibility this time. On June 27, 2025, approximately 11-12 days before the deadlines, he declared “no, we can do what we want” when asked if the Julio’s deadlines were in stone, indicating that they could be extended or shortened. This previous flexibility communication represents a key difference with respect to the June pattern.

What makes this particularly relevant for the analysis of the USD index is that the dollar influenced July 1, 2025, precisely 7 to 8 days before the deadlines of July. This moment was not a coincidence. The market had learned from the June experience that Trump tends to provide flexibility around the tariff deadlines, and the USD Fund of July 1 happened just after his comments on the flexibility of the deadline. The essentially frontal markets the expected postponement.

Looking at the current deadline of August 1, we can draw several important lessons. If the historical pattern is maintained, we could expect some form of communication on the flexibility of the deadline approximately 6-12 days before August 1, which would place it around July 20 to 26, 2025. Since it is July 22, we are probably in the middle of this expected communication window.

However, this time there is a crucial difference. The USD index has already demonstrated a significant force since its bottom of July 1, breaking above the key resistance levels and showing what appears to be a confirmed bullish trend reversion. Unlike the previous situations in which the uncertainty of the rate created the weakness in dollars, the market now seems to be the price because tariffs are fundamentally optimistic for the USD. This suggests that even if August’s deadlines are postponed, the USD index cannot visit the minimum of July 1, since the fundamental narrative has changed “the fee chaos is equal to the weakness in dollars” to the “implementation of rates equals the strength in dollars.”

The employer suggests that, although we could see a short -term USD volatility around the possible communications of the deadline of August, any weakness would probably be limited and short -term compared to the previous cycles, since the markets have now adopted the longest alduct implications of the tariff policy for the strength of the dollar. That is exactly what indicates the confirmed break in the Technical Front.

Another medium -term sign that points to the same comes from the analysis of mining actions to the relationship.

The GDXJ A GLD ratio (NYSE 🙂 is at the bottom of the previous graph, and the RSI indicator is based on it.

As you can see, every time the RSI based on this proportion was moving above 70 and then below it, announced short decreases or (more often) in the medium term in the proportion and in the gold itself. The orange line represents the price of gold, but since so much: gold and the relationship decreased at the same time, GDXJ decreased more during those times.

Interestingly, those RSI signs were not the final tops: these were the main signs. This means that after seeing them, there was some short -term force in 3 of 3 cases and the decrease began only after those small additional manifestations.

Well, we already saw this small additional rally, and the sizes of all recent decreases in gold after similar signals were visibly larger than we saw so far in gold.

Translation? Gold has not decreased enough.

Combining this with the USD situation and all the agitation related to the rate, all paints an image in which precious metals move much lower in the following weeks.

Is the upper short term of the actions in question?

This would not surprise me, since the actions have a myriad of reasons to go down, and the growing tariffs are only one of them. What I want to show him is an appointment from the recent commercial seasonal primer of Ryan Michell (combining the signals of Rick Ackerman with seasonality):

It is likely that the upward objective for this short -term trade is about to achieve. So, even from this perspective, it seems that some rate of exchange could be at hand.

A top in shares here could align with a background in the USD index, which could also take place at the same time when the stocks of gold, silver and mining form their tops.

In general, we have very good reasons to expect the USD index to move higher, much higher, from here. And we have a very good reason to expect platinum, and other precious metals and mining stocks, to go down. If you have been considering making money in this decline, this could serve as a sign that the moment of entering positions is being exhausted.