S&P 500 to 6,500: Why the maximums of all time are not a top

Currently in 6,173.13, the fourth quarter of 2025 is positioned to reach 6,500, driven by the expansion of AI infrastructure, a federal reserve accommodated and stabilizing commercial relations. This thesis, maintained since March, anticipates a tariff structure of 10% baseline with strategic tuadores, comprehensive tax reform and continuous Fed rates, all feeding an impulse of solid gains in technology and emerging energy sectors.

Current market context

On June 27, 2025, the S&P 500 closed to 6,173.13, marking a daily gain of 0.52% and reflecting an increase of almost the year of almost 5%. The reflection this force in 20,273.46, 0.52% more, while the rose 1% to 43,819.27. This yield underlines a sustained breakdown of the market, consisting of my Q1 positioning and aligns with historical patterns where the maximums of all time often precede greater profits.

Investment thesis: four strategic pillars

My thesis is based on four interconnected pillars, each backed by comprehensive analysis of data and policy developments.

1. Reference tariff frame with strategic exceptions

Since March, I have maintained that a 10% basal rate with specific talas for strategic sectors would stabilize the markets. Recent developments validate this opinion. The US-China Commercial Agreement of May 12, 2025 reduced US tariffs from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%, and the June 27 agreement accelerates rare land shipments. The tariff deadline of July 9 now seems flexible, with possible extensions for 10 main commercial partners, significantly reducing the risks of the supply chain for semiconductors and cloud infrastructure. This clarity supports multinational technology leaders and cyclical sectors, reinforcing my market constructive perspective.

2. Fiscal reform as a profit catalyst

Advance fiscal reforms, including corporate rates reductions and national investment incentives, are established to materially boost corporate profits and capital expenses. Si bien la legislación específica permanece pendiente, las órdenes ejecutivas de la administración compatibles con el negocio de mayo de 2025 indican un enfoque en la reducción de las tasas impositivas efectivas, lo que puede reflejar el impacto de los recortes fiscales y los empleos de 2017 que impulsó una concentración de S&P 500 del 20% en 2018. Mi caso base sugiere una ganancia del 5–7% por participación por participación para las empresas S&P 500 If the decrease in corporate taxes to the 21%decrease. This fiscal support will amplify the CAPEX driven by AI and expand market share.

3. Something of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve Pivote represents a critical tail wind, with a probability of 89.4% of at least one cut rate for September 17, 2025. A contraction of the GDP Q1 of -0.5% and the central PCE expected per year after year for the year for the June signal, the sustained disinflation, the indication of the governor of the Fed Fed, the indication of an indication of a 16 subject. A weaker US dollar to minimum of several years further supports risk assets, particularly emerging emerging products, creating an optimal environment for the appreciation of capital.

4. IA infrastructure: the multi -decades growth controller

Artificial intelligence represents the most transformative multipurpose investment issue from the Internet. We are witnessing the early stages of a fundamental change in how companies operate, compete and create value. Companies that build the fundamental infrastructure will capture most of this value creation in the next decade.

The computing layer: Nvidia’s impossible pit

NVIDIA (NVDA) to $ 157.67 with a market capitalization of $ 3,845 billion of potential customers such as the dominant computing platform AI from end to end. I maintain an objective price of $ 180. NVIDIA’S EDGE extends far beyond the chips: its CUDA software platform creates massive change costs, and its fully integrated data centers battery makes it the de facto standard for AI workloads. The adoption of the continuous company and the growth of triple digits in the income of the data center support my conviction.

Memory: The hidden bottleneck

The profits of the Third Micron quarter (EPS of $ 1.91 compared to $ 1.60 expected, income of $ 9.3b compared to $ 8.87b) underlines the insatiable demand of AI of high -band memory memory. As the models climb, memory bandwidth does not calculate alone, it becomes the bottleneck, favoring leaders like micron (Nasdaq :).

Competition intensifies: AMD’s strategic positioning

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (Nasdaq 🙂 at $ 146.12 is closing the gap in Nvidia, driven by its AI Mi300 accelerators and GPU impulse from the data center. I maintain an objective price of $ 175. AMD’s impulse to offer convincing alternatives and avoid the blocking of suppliers positions to capture a growing market share.

Cloud monetization: the software layer

Microsoft (Nasdaq 🙂 at $ 495.94 continues to lead the monetization of AI through the integration of Azure and Copilot. I have an objective price of $ 540. Microsoft’s integrated approach takes advantage of its vast customer base, turning each 365 Office and Azure Client into an opportunity for income income.

The infrastructure game: the potential of Amazon underestimated

Amazon.com inc (Nasdaq 🙂 at $ 223.30 it is still underestimated in its opportunity for ia. AWS is quickly becoming the operating system for business AI, while the integration of the logistics, retail trade and advertising add multiple value drivers. I maintain an objective price of $ 250.

Multiple decades opportunity

During the next 3–5 years, I hope that the monetization of AI through cloud services, business solutions and automation drives the growth of exponential profits between these leaders, reflecting Apple (Nasdaq 🙂 during the smartphones and Amazon telephone revolution during the cloud transition. The construction of the fundamental AI represents a market opportunity of $ 2+ billion during the next decade. The first aggressively investment engines today will become the next generation of technological titans.

Nuclear energy: the AI ​​infrastructure habilitator

The substantial energy requirements of the AI ​​are the remodeling of energy markets, with the energy consumption of the United States data center that is projected to reach 6.7-12% of the total electricity demand by 2028. Executive orders of May 23, 2025 to expand nuclear capacity at 400 GW for 2050 and the small modular modular reactors license are transformational. Constellation Energy (Nasdaq 🙂 and Holtec International, who plan 10–20 SMrs, are main beneficiaries. Nuclear is now a technological infrastructure trade, not just an energy game.

Historical perspective on the high investment of all time

Concerns about investment in record market levels lack a historical base. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has reached new maximums in 7% of the negotiation days (more than 1,250 instances), with 1 year yields on average of 15% between 1988 and 2020, compared to 12% for random days. Corrections more than 10% within a year occur only 9% of the time, and almost a third of the maximum records establish permanent “floors” that are never reviewed.

Short -term valuation concerns have constantly lost great growth opportunities. The current market, with progress P/E multiples backed by the growth of EPS driven by AI (12% annualized), echoes this long -term historical pattern.

Bitcoin and Altcoins: Main indicators and portfolio diversification

He has repeatedly led broader markets, often reaching its maximum point around a month before the S&P 500. This pattern was developed again in 2025: Bitcoin’s historical maximum of $ 112,509.65 on May 22 preceded at the end of the June 27 record of S&P 500.

Currently about $ 107,000, Bitcoin is still resistant. I maintain my target price of $ 150,000, backed by accelerating institutional adoption, favorable regulatory changes and its growing role as a digital value store. Critically, regulators now recognize the potential of cryptography to modernize financial infrastructure instead of seeing it purely as a systemic risk.

A Altcoin season is also on the horizon. , at $ 142.58, it stands out with superior scalability and an expanding ecosystem. Price projections range between $ 255 and $ 480 in 2025, with more possible rise if ETF approvals advance. With a strong technical support and a market capitalization of $ 76.2 billion, Solana is prepared to lead.

Market projection and strategic catalysts

S&P 500 project that reaches 6,500 in the fourth quarter, an advance of 5% of the current levels, driven by the expansion of participation (S&P of equal conditions and a higher performance), the constructive feeling (Bears AAII> Bulls) and the institutional exposure low weight.

Key catalysts:

• July 28, launch of the CPI: An impression about 2.6% must strengthen disinflation and support the cuts of the feed rate.

• July 9 Tarifa Decision: Extensions or specific implementation will maintain the stability of the supply chain.

• Q2 profit season: Upside surprises promoted by AI in technology will lead, with an early software rotation at the end of July.

Risk evaluation and portfolio positioning

The risks include a hottest IPC than expected, delaying the fed cuts or the restoration of complete rates after July 9, which impact supply chains. Overol for inventory could also press the margins of Q3, particularly for small tapas. However, with high fiscal expenditure and positive growth of nominal GDP, reductions are probably shallow and present tactical opportunities.

I remain overweight technology (NVIDIA (Nasdaq :), Microsoft, Amazon), semiconductors (micron, AMD), AI infrastructure, nuclear energy (constellation, Holtec) and selectively and long digital asset infrastructure. I continue with cyclic consumption sectors low weight and low margin industrialists without leverage of AI. Cybersecurity remains a long -term issue that cannot be ignored.

My conviction is based on an exhaustive analysis of policies, promotion of profits and market history. The convergence of the investment of AI, a deceptive food and stabilizing trade create a convincing backdrop for higher capital gains at the end of the year.

In summary, the increase of the S&P 500 to 6,500 is not a jump of faith, but a step measured along a structurally supported growth route. Having invested is not just wise, it is essential.