Guyana has accused Venezuela of violating international law in a dispute over a swath of oil-rich territory by expanding its military presence on their shared border despite promising not to use force.
“This is not the first time that Venezuela has adopted a military posture that appears threatening,” Guyana's Foreign Minister Hugh Todd told the Financial Times in an interview.
Venezuela recently reinforced its military presence on the border of the oil and mineral-rich Essequibo region, which represents about two-thirds of Guyana's territory but has long been claimed by Caracas.
The move followed a December referendum in Venezuela in which voters backed making the region a Venezuelan state, a move seen by Guyana as a prelude to annexation by Caracas.
Guyana's president, Irfaan Ali, and his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro, later signed a statement agreeing not to use force to resolve the dispute.
But satellite images released last week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, appeared to show a deployment of light tanks and armed patrol boats on Anacoco Island, on the border of the Essequibo region, where Venezuela is expanding its military force. base to house up to 300 soldiers.
The country's armed forces have also released videos of military exercises on Anacoco Island.
The International Court of Justice, the UN's highest court, is reviewing the dispute and in November ordered Venezuela not to take measures that would alter the status quo, although a final ruling is years away.
“We are following the rules of international law, Venezuela is violating them,” Todd said, adding that Maduro was trying to force Guyana to resolve the dispute instead of turning to the ICJ.
He accused Maduro of “double standards” and trying to impress voters before elections, scheduled for later this year, at a time when Venezuela remains mired in a humanitarian and economic crisis.
“[Venezuela has] He maintained that he is committed to the region remaining a zone of peace and that he will not use force against Guyana. However, we have seen time and again that at home the military posture does not match the diplomatic posture,” he said.
Caracas has long questioned an international arbitration court's 1899 decision that awarded Essequibo – an area roughly the size of England and home to about 125,000 people – to then-colonial British Guiana. It has intensified its claims since US energy group ExxonMobil made large oil discoveries off the coast of the region in 2015.
The discoveries at the Stabroek offshore block are transforming Guyana's economy. Gross domestic product grew 63 percent in 2022 and 38 percent last year, according to the IMF. It is expected to grow 20 percent annually on average between 2024 and 2028.
Venezuela's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday saying that Guyana and ExxonMobil, which plans to drill in waters off the coast of the disputed area, were violating international law and “seeking to destabilize the region.”
But Venezuela's stance will not affect Guyana's oil and gas sector, Todd said: “We have assured multinational companies operating in Guyana that we are on the right side of international law and are working to exploit our true economic potential.”
ExxonMobil has pledged to continue its expansion in Guyana despite the dispute. Alistair Routledge, president of the company's operations in the country, told Bloomberg last week that “we are moving forward with development and activity within an area that is clearly Guyana territory. . . “When there is controversy over borders, that is up to governments to resolve.”
However, the Lloyd's Market Association, which represents global insurers, last December placed Guyana's waters at the same risk level as the Red Sea, where commercial ships face attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
If conflict were to break out, Guyana's armed forces, with only 4,070 active troops and reserves, would face Venezuela's 351,000 military personnel.
Todd said Guyana was “not developing any capability to fight Venezuela” and that the country's defense strategy remained based on cooperation with allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
In December, the United Kingdom sent HMS Trent, a naval patrol ship, to Guyana, while the United States conducted overflights. Following a visit by White House officials earlier this month, the United States said it would help Guyana purchase new aircraft, drones and radar technology.
Analysts say tensions are likely to remain high this year, as Maduro seeks to extract concessions from Georgetown.
“Maduro will no doubt try to match Venezuela’s military buildup, which officials have [said is] defensive, with Guyana's purchases from the United States and the visit of the HMS Trent,” said Theodore Kahn, director for the Andean region of the consulting firm Control Risks. “You could use this, for example, to push for an agreement that limits intervention by foreign powers in the dispute.”
But Todd was confident that Guyana's allies would ensure its security, saying: “In the democratic world, you will realize that once you are threatened by . . . a failed democracy, they will not be left alone.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
