US markets. Mixed closure in the midst of Iran’s intervention concerns
The US Variable Income Markets closed on Friday in cautious trade before the possible intervention of the United States in the Iran-Israel conflict. For the week, the US 500 (S&P 500) ended 0.15% lower, while Us Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) fell 0.02% and the Wall Street added 9 points (0.02%).
UU. It smells Iranian nuclear sites during the weekend
These concerns proved to be very founded after the United States made attacks with B-2 stealth bombers in three Iranian nuclear sites during the weekend and since then has affirmed that the attacks “erased” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The United States insists that strikes aimed to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, not regime change, but Trump’s rhetoric suggests the opening for additional action. From Israel’s perspective, you can boost the additional support of the United States to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remains listed and a more friendly regime is installed in Iran.
Iran promises potential response and retaliation
Iran has promised to respond, with officials warning about “eternal consequences.” Possible actions include attacks with missiles or drones about US or Israeli objectives, cyber attacks or asymmetric attacks through representatives such as Hezbollah or Hutis rebels, although their abilities weaken.
Risks to global trade and the historical context
Iran can also consider interrupting global trade by closing the hormuz narrow; However, we continue to think that this is unlikely due to its impact on its main clients, China and India. With that last point in mind, we highlight that although most inflammation points in the Middle East in the last five decades generally cause temporary peaks in crude oil prices, the largest and most durable increases usually arise from changes in the regime.
At this point, the market response has been caution while we expect more details about what comes next and, more precisely, what will be the response of the Iranian regime.
It arises from oil prices, the immersion of capital futures and the demand for safe refuge
WTI crude oil futures were opened to $ 78.00, reached a maximum of $ 78.40 and since then they have decreased to $ 75.92 (+1.29%). The Futures of the USA 500 of capital have dropped 0.35%, in 5997 after their reopening. The US dollar is modestly offered against Japanese Yen in 146.40 (+0.2%), probably in part because Japan is a large importer of energy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin quote over $ 100K after a fall at $ 98,420 early this morning.
Key data to see this week
Looking towards the future, beyond evaluating the consequences of the weekend events in Iran, US capital markets can begin to feel the impact of the end of the month and quarter re -quilibrium flows, which is suspected that involve the sale of US shares and the purchase of bonds.
In the front of the data, there will be a great interest in the key data, including the PMI Flash, the durable goods and the FED inflation measurement, the central PCE price index provided below. It is important to keep in mind that PCE inflation data precedes the 24.5% increase in crude oil prices.
