Retail stores Old Navy and Gap are seen while people walk on Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty images
The economic growth forecasts for the United States were already reduced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, since the tariff agitation of President Donald Trump weighs on expectations.
The growth perspective of the United States was reviewed descending to only 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still waiting for an expansion of 2.2% in 2025.
The consequences of Trump’s tariff policy, the uncertainty of high economic policy, a slowdown in net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the last reduction.
Meanwhile, global growth is also expected to be lower than the prognosis previously, and the OECD says that “the deceleration is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico”, while it is projected that other economies see smaller reviews down.
“The global GDP growth is expected to decrease 3.3% by 2024 to 2.9% this year and 2026 … about the assumption that tariff rates in mid -May are supported despite the current legal challenges,” said the OECD.
He had previously predicted a global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.
“The global perspective is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in trade barriers, the strictest financial conditions, the weakest confidence and consumers and the greatest uncertainty of politics will have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”
Frequent changes with respect to tariffs have continued in recent weeks, which leads to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include the reciprocal taxes of Trump specific to the country that are attacked by the United States International Court of International Trade, before being reinstated by an appeal court, as well as Trump saying that it would double 50%steel tasks.
“The reasons why we degrade almost all in our forecast is that the commercial uncertainty and uncertainty of economic policy have reached unprecedented levels,” said Ocde’s chief economist Angel Pereira to the “Europe Squawk Europe” Europe “of CNBC.
“As a consequence, we have been seeing that consumption and investment have decreased, and in fact, the activity indicators have also decreased. And if you take this into account, and we also try to estimate in our models, you will see that there will be less growth, less jobs and more inflation pressures in the future.”
The United States inflation to rise
The OECD adjusted its inflation prognosis, saying that “the highest commercial costs, especially in the countries that increase tariffs, will also increase inflation, although its impact will be partially compensated by the prices of the weakest basic products.”
The impact of rates on inflation has been discussed heated, with many policy formulators of the Central Bank and global analysts that suggest that it is not clear how taxes will affect prices, and that depends on factors such as possible countermeasures.
The OECD inflation perspective shows a notable difference between the United States and some of the other important economies in the world. For example, although G20 countries are expected to register 3.6% inflation in 2025, below 3.8% in the March estimate, the projection for the US has increased to 3.2%, compared to a previous 2.8%.
The inflation of the United States could even be 4% towards the end of 2025, said the OECD.
‘On the cusp of something quite significant’
Pereira de la Ocde also discussed technology developments such as AI, and how they are affecting productivity, and giving the United States an advantage.
“Productivity has been very strong in the United States, and we hope that this will probably expand the gap between the United States [and] The rest of the world, exactly because exposure to AI by sectors in the United States is higher, “he said.
With technology such as AI, robotics and quantum computing, there is the possibility of a “significant productivity revival,” he said, but only if commercial barriers are reduced and the increase in investment and consumption.
“I think that if we can obtain trade agreements between countries, not only between China, the United States, but also other parts of the world and if we are able to reduce uncertainty, we believe we could be on the cusp of something quite significant,” Pereira said.
