The surplus of the US services faces the commercial war.

The United States is the world’s leading service exporter to the global economy. The services sector is also the dominant source of economic activity in the United States. Those are strengths, but they are also vulnerabilities in a global trade war.

A key risk to the US services sector is that tariffs’ elevation practically guarantees that international trade decreases. According to some accounts, that is an advantage because the United States has a large commercial deficit for manufactured products. But what is often overlooked is that the United States executes a considerable commercial surplus for services, a sector that is much more important for the economy of the United States.

“In most cases, the final result of tariffs is that it does not resolve a commercial deficit, it only means that it merchants less, you matter less, exports less, the general deficit does not usually change,” says Brad Setser, the main member of the Foreign Relations Council and former official of the Treasury Department and the United States Trade representative’s office in the Biden Administration.

On that basis, the US services sector is in the sights in a world commercial war. Consider that the United States constantly manages a large commercial surplus in services, approximately $ 24 billion in net exports in February.

This export success has been a key support for the US services sector, which is, with much, the main growth engine for the economy of the United States. But that force becomes a responsibility in a global commercial war: a vulnerability that has not gone unnoticed throughout the world as governments consider their options on how to respond to the increase in US tariffs.

“The European Union is a net importer of US services, a position that gives the EU” many sharp stones to launch, “says Tobias Gehrke, a member of the main policy of the European Board of Foreign Affairs.

“The true leverage that Europeans have is, ultimately, on the side of services,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe in the Eurasia group, a political consulting. “It will intensify before decalcalar.”

The risk for the US services sector. It is the slowdown in growth in March, which still does not reflect the setback of a global commercial war. The survey -based indicator decreased speed in March, displacing to the weakest rhythm since June 2024. Reading 50.8 for last month is close to the neutral brand of 50, which suggests that the sector is flirting stagnation or worse in the coming months when the wind against strengthens the setback of a global commercial war.

Despite all the attention in the manufacture of the USA and the White House plans to design a rebirth in the sector, the US economy depends much more on the growth sector for growth. In other words, the fortune of the service sector will play a more important role in determining the risk of recession and the scope of a recession in the coming months.