USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Bitcoin Price & Emerging Markets FX Correlations Overview:

  • Per the Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor, external debt-to-GDP ratios, implied FX volatility, and bond risk premia are some of the key factors that traders need to keep an eye on when looking for potential trade opportunities in EM FX.
  • Weakness in EM FX is starting to emerge around the latest US-China trade war developments: this is an important test for the fundamental basis of the relationship between EM FX and cryptocurrency markets.
  • The current 5-day correlation between bitcoin prices and USD/CNH is -0.69.

Looking for a guide on how to analyze Emerging Market Currencies (EM FX)? Read the Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor.

Why Does EM FX Trade Differently?

Per the Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor, external debt-to-GDP ratios, implied FX volatility, and bond risk premia are some of the key factors that traders need to keep an eye on when looking for potential trade opportunities in EM FX.

Countries that run have excessive external financing via their current account, foreign direct investment, and export growth, plus high external debt-to-GDP, are likely to have currencies that face difficulties. Currencies facing high implied volatility, bond risk premia, and inflation are prime contenders for weakness.

Among the list of emerging market currencies that currently fit the bill for some of these criteria are: the Chinese Yuan, the Indian Rupee, the Russian Ruble, the Turkish Lira, and the South African Rand.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH) vs Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (June to December 2019) (Chart 1)

December may have just gotten underway, but thus far,USD/CNH has gained 0.53% while bitcoin prices have lost -2.9%. The current 5-day and 20-day correlations between USD/CNH and bitcoin prices are -0.69 and -0.65, respectively. On longer-term horizons, the 3-month and 6-month correlations are 0.04 and -0.35, respectively. In our last update on USD/CNH and bitcoin prices, the 3-month and 6-month correlations were 0.13 and -0.31.

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Among the emerging market FX discussed in this report, USD/CNH has the most significant 5-day and 20-day correlations with bitcoin prices.

Indian Rupee (USD/INR) vs Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (June to December 2019) (Chart 2)

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Thus far in December, USD/INR has gained 0.08% while bitcoin prices have lost -2.9%. The current 5-day and 20-day correlations between USD/INR and bitcoin prices are -0.08 and -0.37, respectively. On longer-term horizons, the 3-month and 6-month correlations are -0.23 and -0.48, respectively. In our last update on USD/INR and bitcoin prices, the 3-month and 6-month correlations were are 0.11 and -0.40.

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Among the emerging market FX discussed in this report, USD/INR has the most significant 6-month correlation with bitcoin prices.

Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) vs Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (June to December 2019) (Chart 3)

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

December may have just gotten underway, but thus far, USD/RUB has lost -0.41% while bitcoin prices have lost -2.9%. The current 5-day and 20-day correlations between USD/RUB and bitcoin prices are 0.22 and -0.24, respectively. On longer-term horizons, the 3-month and 6-month correlations are 0.02 and 0.06, respectively. In our last update on USD/RUB and bitcoin prices, the 3-month and 6-month correlations were 0.35 and 0.04.

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) vs Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Technical Analysis: DailyChart (June to December 2019) (Chart 4)

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Thus far in December,USD/TRY has gained 0.85% while bitcoin prices have gained 0.04%.The current 5-day and 20-day correlations between USD/TRY and bitcoin prices are -0.81 and 0.17, respectively. On longer-term horizons, the 3-month and 6-month correlations are -0.30 and -0.46, respectively.In our last update on USD/TRY and bitcoin prices, the 3-month and 6-month correlations were -0.30 and -0.50.

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Among the emerging market FX discussed in this report, USD/TRY has the most significant 3-month correlation with bitcoin prices.

South African Rand (USD/ZAR) vs Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Technical Analysis: DailyChart (June to December 2019) (Chart 5)

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

December may have just gotten underway, but thus far,USD/ZAR has lost-0.09% while bitcoin prices have lost -2%. The current 5-day and 20-day correlations between USD/ZAR and bitcoin prices are 0.66 and 0.61, respectively. On longer-term horizons, the 3-month and 6-month correlations are -0.09 and -0.28, respectively. In our last update on USD/ZAR and bitcoin prices, the 3-month and 6-month correlations were -0.26 and -0.30.

Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Jockey for Lead

Why Does Crypto Typically Benefit When EM FX Suffers?

A quick recap: bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not “safe haven currencies” per se, as they lack key features of being a currency in the first place, main of which is a ‘stable store of value.’ But if you’re not using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as ‘stores of value,’ then, given the electronic nature of the globalized economy in 2019, the cryptocurrency market, coins and tokens can all be used as intermediaries to move capital beyond of the reach of governmental agencies.

Why would a market participant want to move capital around without government interference? If capital controls are in place, then it may be impossible to render the production of goods or services at fair value, especially in an emerging market economy. It may not be due to domestic conditions alone, either fiscally (via elections) or monetarily (via central banking independence). Instead, it could be due to external factors, like economic fallout from an international trade dispute – say, the US-China trade war.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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