- USD/INR Steanies over 86.00 and after reflection from 21 days of support for EMA near 85.80, the three -day lane loss set out.
- Indian Rupees weakens, although it releases geopolitical tension, as an importer of demand for the US dollar and cautious profit of the risk sentiment.
- The Fed chair Powell maintains a careful tone, the signaling has not rushing to reduce rates, focuses on the testimony of the Senate on Wednesday.
Indian Rupees (INR) in the middle weaken against the US dollar (USD). Rupees opened on a firm note in the middle of a favorable risk sentiment, but despite the session, it was alleviated as lower as US dollar index (DXY) held the land near the minimum of the previous week. Meanwhile, oil prices remain stable after a sharp two -day sale and offer limited RUPIE support.
USD/INR shows a slight recovery and stops a three -day lane loss because it is discouraged from Intraday Low nearly 85.80. The couple found support on the 21 -day exponential gliding average (EMA) and trades around 86.15 at the time of writing during the US trading hours.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East was released by agreement on the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and brought some relief to global markets. Oil prices have stabilized after a sharp two -day sale and the demand of the safe and safe has cooled and supported the wider sentiment of risk. While Rupee is slightly beneficial from de-espace, her reaction remains subdued. The INR still faces pressure from constant demand for the US dollar – especially from oil companies – and remains sensitive to changes in global risk of appetite.
- Indian Rupee has published its strongest daily profit per month on Tuesday, although volatility persists with the USD/INR swing between 85.80 and 86.89 GBP in the last week. The average exchange rate in June is approximately 86.00 GBP, which is approximately CZK 86.10 year -on -year.
- In its June Bulletin published on Wednesday, the Bank of India (RBI) said that the domestic economy continues to show strength despite global headwriting disturbances and geopolitical tensions. The article “Economic Status” stressed that India remains on a stable growth path.
- “In this state, increased global uncertainty aims various high -frequency indicators for May 2025 to resistant economic activities in India across industrial and services,” RBI said in her article “Economy Status”.
- RBI sees the extent to underline inflation, trims the forecast FY26: RBI said, “The short -term and medium -term outlook now gives us the confidence not only of durable matching with the aim of 4 % … but also the belief that during the year it is likely that the target on the edge is underlined.” In accordance with the central bank, it revised its inflation prognosis at FY2025-26 to 3.7%, which is a decline in the previous estimate of 4.0%.
- RBI signals the displacement of liquidity, which on Tuesday announces plans to choose a surplus of short -term cash from the banking system. The aim of the central bank is to remove 1 trillion RS ($ 11.6 billion) from the banking system through a seven -day variable rate of reverse reverse auction of 27 June. This reverse report operation, the first since November, is designed to align the rate overnight to the reposition rate and can enter the short -term money market rate.
- On the domestic capital market, Benchmark Sensex jumped 700.40 points to close to 82,75551, while a handy increase of 200.40 points ended at 25,244.75, raised an improved risk sentiment and relaxation of geopolitical tension. According to the exchange data on Wednesday on Wednesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIS) interpreted shares worth 2,427.74 Crore on a net basis.
- After a sharp decline, raw oils are built, with Brent moving near 66.80 $ and WTI around $ 64.80. Prices have stabilized after a sharp decrease earlier in the week, as alleviating geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel has reduced concerns about disturbance of supplies.
- India may push the United States to extend the exceptions window for President Donald Trump’s mutual tariffs, which are to be launched from 9 July, because both countries have to agree on the outlines of mini agreements, MoneyControl said. “Traders are now focused on the upcoming updates related to the short -term business trade. USD/INR has 85.10 support and 85.90 resistance,” said Dilip Parmar, research analyst HDFC Securities.
- The US has long criticized Indian agricultural tariffs, which on average 39%, significantly higher than the US 5%. India and the US are currently negotiating a mini agreement or a reduced version of the first tranches of a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), on the timeline for which it is around September
- On Tuesday, Jerome Powell has strengthened the Fed’s approach to the patient before the Congress and President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell and indicated that the reduction in July is unlikely. He emphasized the need for greater clarity of inflation trends and potential impacts from higher tariffs prior to the implementation of any political shift. Powell’s notes indicate that the Fed remains dependent on data and the rates cuts could be delayed until September or further. This cautious tone led to a shift in the market anticipation, while traders pulled bets for short -term relaxation.
- In May, the American new sale of houses dropped sharply, the sale in May dropped by 13.7% of mothers per seasonally modified annual rate of 623,000 units. A sharp decline deleted April 9.6% and pointed to renewed softness in the housing market, because higher loans and economic uncertainty weighs the buyer’s demand.
- The US dollar index (DXY) slips on Wednesday during the US session below 98.00 levels and trades around 97.80
USD/INR technical outlook: repeated test in the game, steam for short -term trade
USD/INR is currently traded around 86.03, which moves from the recent maximum. The couple found support near the 21 -day EMA at 85.91, which closely copes with the upper limit of the symmetrical pattern of the triangle. The couple recently broke out from a symmetrical triangle, but faced resistance below 87.00 psychological brand, which triggered the move.
The relative force index (RSI) in the daily chart is released above the neutral at 53.02, indicating the loss of bull momentum and suggests potential trading between 85.80 and 86.90 in the near future. The decisive break on both sides of this extent is likely to determine further directional distortion.
Indian Rupee Faqs
Indian rupees (INR) are one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of oil (the country is highly dependent on imported oil), the value of the US dollar – most of the trade is carried out in USD – and the level of foreign investment is influential. Direct intervention of India Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on FX markets to make the exchange rate stable and the level of interest rates set by the RBI, as well as the main influencing factors on rupee.
The Indian Reserve Bank (RBI) actively affects the forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate to help facilitate trade. In addition, RBI seeks to maintain the inflation rate on its 4% objects by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen rupees. This is due to the role of “transmission trade” in which investors borrow to countries with lower interest rates to put their money into countries that offer relatively higher interest rates and profit.
Macroeconomic factors that affect the value of rupees include inflation, interest rates, economic growth rate (GDP), business balance and influx from foreign investments. A higher growth rate can lead to several overseas investments and increase demand for rupees. Less negative business balance will eventually lead to stronger rupees. Higher interest rates, especially actual rates (less inflation rates), are also positive for rupees. The environmental environment can lead to a greater influx of direct and indirect investments of foreign foreign (FDI and FII), of which it also benefits rupees.
Higher inflation, especially if it is relatively higher than Indian peers, is generally negative to the currency because it reflects devaluation by an excessive supply. Inflation also increases export costs, leading to selling more rupees to buy foreign imports, which is a negative rupee. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to an increase in interest rates by the Bank of India (RBI), which can be positive for rupees due to increased demand of international investors. The opposite effect applies to lower inflation.
