Week ahead: all eyes on the US CPI, UK and Apple WWDC growth data

• MON: Japanese R (Q1), Chinese inflation (May), Chinese Balance (May), Ez Sentix Index (June), Employment Trends in the United States (May)
• SEA: EIA Steo, United Kingdom Job Report (APR), Swedish GDP (APR), Norwegian CPI (May)
• MARRY: ECB Wage Tracker, US CPI (May), United Kingdom expenses review
• THU: GDP of the United Kingdom (APR), US PPI (May)
• FRI: French/Spanish final CPI (May), Ez Trade Beance (APR), Survey of the University of Michigan (Jun), Quad Witching

US CPI (MIÉ): Analysts expect the main CPI will increase +0.2% m/m in (vs +0.2% in April), and the central rate is expected to obtain up to +0.3% m/m (vs +0.2% before). The May CPI report will be closely observed to assess whether the tariffs imposed in April are affecting consumer prices. Fed Goolsbee has warned that April inflation data could be the “last vestige” of the lowest inflation before the tariff impacts arise.

Fed Beige’s last book, based on data until May 23, showed moderate price increases, and all districts reported that higher tariffs are promoting costs and prices. The contacts that expect to transmit costs related to the rate anticipated doing so in three months, which suggests that the tariff effect could appear in the next reports.

May’s ISM PMI surveys showed that the price components remain high: slightly paid at 69.4 of 69.8, while they rose to 68.7 from 65.1. With tariffs that increase commercial costs, it is likely that many companies transmit them to consumers, which the Fed will consider in their policy deliberations. Governor Waller sees that tariffs cause a unique price increase and believes that Fed should review it, but this opinion is not widely shared in the committee.

Goolsbee is cautious about calling tariff effects transitory, while Kugler expects some permanence. Kashkari said he recognizes the debate, but personally finds arguments against ignoring inflation induced by the most convincing rate.

United Kingdom GDP (JU): The expectations are for m/m GDP in April to contract 0.1% after the expansion of 0.2% observed in the. As a reminder, the previous release saw the growth rate of slow to 0.2% in March compared to the departure of 0.5% in February, which was backed by a frontal race of possible incoming fees.

In general, this saw that the Q1 Q1 rate increased to 0.7% from the scarce 0.1% of Q4, exceeding expectations in the BOE. Although, as Investec highlighted (Lon :), the MPC minimized the rise and attributed it to “erratic factors”, concluding that the underlying growth was almost zero.

Apple WWDC (LUN): The Apple (Nasdaq 🙂 WWDC begins at 13: 00edt/18: 00bst on Monday, June 9, 2025, with pressure on the technological heavyweight to build your previous promises. WSJ writes that the growing list of problems of Apple Nubla the restart of AI and that the problems of AI, the rates, Google (Nasdaq 🙂 Payments and the rates of the application store have weighed in the actions before wwdc, which has dropped ~ 20% ytd.

WSJ adds that the Apple Intelligence Service presented at last year’s conference remains a work in Progreso, and Siri’s digital assistant is still waiting for a promised image change. However, that will not come next week, since the Journal bases it on a rare admission that Apple made three months ago that its planned Siri update was taking more than expected.

Continuing highlighting the descending tone of some desks, Moffettnathanson said: “Apple will be much more cautious about excessive promising and will refrain from showing characteristics that are not yet ready for star schedule”, while Needham reduced the actions of threats to short -term growth. Showing the additional concerns, WSJ jokes that AI is only one of the important problems that Apple now faces: tariffs threaten the gain margins of the AAPL hardware business, while Trump is openly pressing Co. to effectively undo its commercial model of two decades of its devices abroad.

In terms of new releases on WWDC, Apple is expected to present the main updates on all its platforms, including iOS 26, MacOS 26, Ipados 26, Watchos 26 and more. According to the reports, 9to5Mac notes with AI play a smaller role this year, the center of attention will probably fall into design updates, and the selections of the desire list for a long time, such as a better window management support on the iPad. While much of the Care Center will probably shine in the visual review, 9to5Mac has learned that Apple has also been silently preparing a handful of improvements in applications such as messages, music, notes and carplay, so some could be announced as soon as the next week.

While there is probable that there is anything to blow the socks, 9TO5MAC reports five previously not reported Airpods that can also be announced as early as Monday: 1) New head gestures, 2) Sleep self -shift pause, 3) Chamber control, 4) Audio mixture, 5) broader class support.

United Kingdom Job Report (TUE): The expectations are for the ILO unemployment rate in the period from 3 months to April to increase to 4.6%from 4.5%, while the salary growth of the main ones at a base of 3M/Yy remains stable at 5.5%. As a reminder, the previous release saw that the unemployment rate would be pushed higher than 4.5% from 4.4%, the growth of slow employment to 112K from 206k and salary growth is marginally cool. This time, Pantheon Macro hopes that the next launch “shows the labor market that passes the worst of the shocks induced by the payroll tax walks of April”, adding that “the payrolls granted will probably will fall again in May, but the fall month by month should be smaller than in April.”

As a reminder, it is worth noting that the report is still full of data collection problems. In the salary front, the consulting said that an expected decrease in salary growth will maintain “regular amazement of the private sector on the way to a little below the last prognosis of Q2 of the MPC, 5.2%”. That said, the Prime Minister recognizes that “recent recent than what was previously supposed, the public sector salary agreements should increase salary growth more than the MPC expected.” From a policy perspective, given the solid start of the year for growth and a little respite of the gloom of the day after liberation, a 25 -bale cut of the BOE does not have a total price until November with a total of 40 bp of cuts seen at the end of the year.

Expenditure review of the United Kingdom (Wednesday): Foreign Minister Reeves will announce his review of expenses in individual government departments and describe what his budgets will be for the next three years. The main focus of this has been and is expected to be an impulse from the Labor Government to focus on infrastructure investment during the rest of the term. Given this, we have seen numerous ads related to the infrastructure reported and/or announced, mainly focused on transport. A point that will receive attention in the holder, although it is not particularly relevant in the market, is the change in the green book; This dictates the way in which the fiscal formula is applied to the regions of the entire United Kingdom.

In terms of conflict points for Reeves, reports on the FT on June 2 described that pending departmental budgetary decisions included housing, energy, education and crimes. The review is also a precursor to the autumn budget, for which Reeves has once again ruled out a large tax increase for “working people”, and in general that “it has no intention of increasing taxes again on the 2024 budget scale.” However, Deutsche Bank believes that the Foreign Minister’s Fiscal Chamber will once again be eroded at the time of the fall budget, and as such reeves they will need to increase taxes by at least GBP 10BLN. As a reminder, the Autumn Budget 2024 saw Reeves increase taxes in around GBP 40BLN.

This time, Investte points out that the data will encapsulate the period surrounding the day of release, which the reciprocal rates were announced larger than expected. Subsequent decreases in shares and bond markets made financing for companies more expensive. As such, Investte suspects that “, therefore, some production was suspended in the goods sector, even in the United Kingdom, while companies expected more clarity.” Investte is of the opinion that this should overcome any positivity observed in the service sector due to favorable climatic conditions that increased retail spending. From a political perspective, the MPC approach is mainly based on the growth of wages and inflation. Since the M/m GDP series can be quite volatile, and often explained, any change in market prices is probably lower and not sustained.

This article originally appeared in Newsquawk.