Few voters have so much power over climate change and an Australian citizen.
Among democracies, only the United States and Canada approach Australia in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per capita. The country is also one of the largest exporters in the world of planet heater fuels, which sell coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, as well as natural gas, in large quantities to Asian countries.
When the country celebrates national elections on Saturday, surveys indicate that climate change will not be the most important for many. But the main candidates, of the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition, have very different climatic and energy policies.
The front and the center are the country’s dependence on a fleet of aged coal plants to generate its electricity.
“Even if it were not for climate change, that fleet must be removed,” said Andrew Macintosh, a professor of law and environmental policy at the National University of Australia. “On the one hand, you have work, which proposes to continue increasing renewable energies, and on the other you have a conservative coalition that pushes nuclear.”
Both approaches would result in emission reductions, Macintosh said, but the nuclear plan has left their heads. Nuclear power plants may take more than a decade to build, while renewable energies can be implemented in months.
“I would have to keep coal in operation for many additional years,” he said, “what would be expensive and polluting.”
Somehow, analysts said, Australia’s climatic policy reflects the polarized debate in the United States, where President Donald J. Trump speaks incremently on climate science and has exposed the transition to cleaner energy as a scam. “Here, also, there is a prominent narrative that seeks to do work and development versus climate,” said Matt McDonald, a political problem focused on climatic problems at the University of Queensland.
But instead of making Australians more concerned with climate change, Trump’s antipathy towards the subject has “taken the heat from both sides because it does not seem that there is much international impulse in addressing this,” said Dr. McDonald.
If Australians feel pressure, it is to increase energy costs for households. According to the Australian Energy Regulator, average energy prices for energy increased approximately 60 percent in the last decade.
The starting prime minister, Anthony Albanese, who leads the Labor Party, has established relatively ambitious objectives for the generation of renewable energy, with the aim of more than 80 percent by 2030. With vast desert extensions, Australia is suitable for the production of solar energy in particular.
“But,” said Dr. McDonald, “we also have a lot of coal.”
The main opponent of Prime Minister Albanese, Peter Dutton, who leads the liberal-national coalition, wants Australian gas production to enter his national electricity production. Gas, while a fossil fuel is significantly less polluting than coal. Mr. Dutton has proposed to force gas producers to sell a part of their production to the Australian network, while reducing the timeline to obtain new approved drill projects.
Both parts generally support gas development. Australia is the second largest gas exporter in the world, after the United States.
With surveys that indicate a tight race, there is the possibility that the country’s green party, as well as the so -called blue -green independents, both burning supporters of strong climatic policies, can be creators of kings in Parliament. “If you cling to the seats they already have, they will be in a position to press the climate, things such as reducing coal exports,” said Dr. McDonald.
A final wrinkle that can be felt throughout the world is if Australia houses global climatic conversations sponsored by the United Nations of the United Nations next year, a high profile event known by the acronym COP. Currently, Australia is competing against Türkiye to organize the event, a position that comes with the geopolitical prestige and the economic benefits of organizing tens of thousands of delegates.
The host countries generally establish the pattern for the ambition of conversations, and the government of Prime Minister Albanese has spent more than a year by pressing other countries to support Australia’s offer. “That will definitely not happen under the coalition if they were chosen,” said Dr. McDonald.
