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What to expect from Trump, Haley and DeSantis

by SuperiorInvest

Campaign signs along the road in Concord, New Hampshire, on January 18, 2024. The state’s primary is scheduled for January 23, 2024.

Timothy A. Clary | AFP | fake images

New Hampshire voters will go to the polls on Tuesday for the first primary election of the 2024 presidential cycle.

But if former President Donald Trump has his way, the early race could effectively mark the end of the road to the Republican nomination.

Following his landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses, Trump and his supporters are hoping for an explosion in the Granite State that will dampen the campaigns of his two remaining rivals: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Polls indicate that New Hampshire offers Haley her best chance to win, while DeSantis, who is a distant third in the polls, is already looking toward South Carolina.

Regardless of Tuesday’s outcome in New Hampshire, political experts say it’s hard to imagine any of Trump’s rivals catching up to his overall lead.

“When you say it out loud, you realize it starts to sound like something out of West Wing fan fiction,” said Chris Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire.

Here’s what you should know and what to pay attention to:

New Hampshire by the numbers

Here are the numbers you need to know ahead of the primary, provided by the office of New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan.

Number of polling places: 309

Number of primary election workers: More than 6,000

Number of candidates on Republican Party primary ballots: 24

Number of candidates on Democratic primary ballots: 21 (and Biden not one of them)

Number of registered Republicans: 267,768

Number of registered Democrats: 261,254

Number of registered/”Undeclared” independents: 344,335

Total registered voters: 873,357

Expected Republican Turnout: 322,000

Expected Democratic turnout: 88,000

Voting hours: Generally between 7 am and 7 pm, but it can vary. State law requires polling places to open no later than 11 a.m. and close no earlier than 7 p.m.

Trump wants to bury his rivals

Republican presidential candidate former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on January 17, 2024.

Timothy A. Clary | AFP | fake images

Trump has long treated his Republican primary victory as a foregone conclusion. After sweeping his rivals in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, Trump and his supporters are increasing pressure on them to drop out.

Trump won by a 30-point margin in Iowa, crushing any hopes DeSantis or Haley, who came in second and third respectively, had of a boost that could boost their chances in New Hampshire.

While the outcome of Tuesday’s primary is expected to be closer, the latest Polls of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters show Trump leading Haley by double digits.

Just as important as the size of that lead is who will vote for whom. Polls show Haley leading Trump among independents, a crucial bloc in the Granite State, where there are more “undeclared” voters than Republicans or Democrats.

But Trump has a huge lead among registered Republicans, giving him the overall lead in the state. Trump’s dominance among registered Republican voters will only become more important as the nomination race shifts to redder states later this spring.

For Trump supporters, DeSantis and Haley can only do one thing: get out of the leader’s way.

“I call on all other candidates, all of whom have no chance of winning, to withdraw so we can unite and immediately support President Trump,” said House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik. , from New York. wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Stefanik is a strong supporter of Trump and is reportedly a candidate to be his running mate.

Other Trump supporters in Congress and in the conservative media, such as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Fox News opinion host Sean Hannity, are also declaring the race is over.

They have been joined in recent days by a growing number of Trump’s former Republican primary rivals (Nebraska Gov. Doug Burgum, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina), who recently endorsed Trump. former president.

Under pressure, Haley needs a win

Republican presidential candidate and former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks at a rally at the Omni Mt. Washington Hotel & Resort in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, US, January 16, 2024.

Faith Ninivaggi | Reuters

Read more CNBC political coverage

But even a strong second might not be enough to keep Haley’s biggest donors on board. After Iowa, several of them were worried her campaign would end if she didn’t win in New Hampshire, CNBC reported Tuesday.

Some of this pessimism has its roots in the political makeup of the post-New Hampshire states. For example, Haley’s home state of South Carolina will hold its primary on February 3. Known for her deeply conservative Republican electorate, polls in the Palmetto State already show Trump leading Haley there by an even wider margin than in New Hampshire.

One thing that could help Haley on Tuesday, experts said, would be a larger-than-expected turnout, because the push would likely be driven by independents.

The problem for Haley: Enthusiasm drives turnout, and enthusiasm has been sorely lacking during the primaries.

“The mood is definitely pessimistic,” Scala said. “The feeling is that we are all doing time in New Hampshire until this is over.”

DeSantis faces a reckoning

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis makes a campaign stop at LaBelle Winery on Wednesday, January 17, 2024 in Derry, NH.

Matt McClain | The Washington Post | fake images

What about Biden?

US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on his economic plan during a visit to the Abbotts Creek Community Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, US, on January 18, 2024.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

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