Home Forex When is the Australian jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

When is the Australian jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

by SuperiorInvest

The December employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which will be released at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be an immediate catalyst for traders in the AUD/USD pair.

The market consensus suggests that the overall unemployment rate may remain unchanged at 3.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the change in employment could moderate to 22.5 thousand. compared to the previous increase of 64.0 thousand Furthermore, the participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at the previous level of 66.8%.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policymakers’ recent retreat from a hawkish bias, in line with their global counterpart, today’s Aussie jobs report has become crucial for AUD/USD traders.

Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said:

Leading indicators suggest further strong employment growth in December (Westpac forecast: 30k). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable (Westpac forecast: 3.4%).

Along the same lines, ANZ analysts mentioned,

Given the tight labor market, we expect solid employment growth to continue in December with an increase of 35,000, participation to remain around November’s record, and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.4%. While vacancies fell by 5% quarter-on-quarter in November, they are still very high compared to the past and the NAB employment index is also well above average.

How can the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD is increasing bids to consolidate its biggest daily loss in two weeks, holding on to its highest levels since mid-August 2022, offering modestly near 0.6945 at press time. At the same time, the Australian pair is cheering for the broad weakening of the US dollar and hopes to witness positive data, not to forget the cautious optimism in the market.

The last one though Fed The talks suggest a hawkish move and contrast with other central bankers who are on the verge of announcing less aggressive monetary policy going forward. As a result, market sentiment remains mixed and may weigh on AUD/USD prices if the planned Aussie numbers fail to impress buyers of the pair.

Technically, Wednesday’s reversal from the highest levels since mid-August 2022 shows a rising bearish wedge diagram pattern on daily formation, currently between 0.7020 and 0.6810.

Key notes

AUD/USD pauses decline from five-month high near 0.6950 ahead of Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD Forecast: A bearish case should gain adepts once below 0.6930

About changing jobs

The change in employment released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of people employed in Australia. In general, it can be said that an increase in this indicator has positive effects on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high value is considered positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low value is considered negative (or bearish).

About the unemployment rate

The unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If rates go up, it means insufficient expansion in the Australian labor market. As a result, the rise leads to a weakening of the Australian economy. A decrease in value is considered positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is considered negative (or bearish).

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