Mike Rychko, a researcher at prediction market infrastructure provider Azuro, believes prediction markets are becoming more widespread, and the data seems to back him up.
In a post on Thursday
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko wrote. “But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins,’ that’s language anyone speaks.”
He added that “humans are lazy by design” and crave a “clean, digestible signal,” and said prediction markets meet that demand by turning complex forecasts into simple data points.
“That simplicity is precisely why prediction markets will find mass adoption faster than most DeFi experiments.”
Earlier this month, cryptocurrency-powered prediction market Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from NYSE parent company Intercontinental Exchange, at a valuation of $9 billion.
Reports in early September suggested that Polymarket is aiming for a US launch that could value the company at up to $10 billion, following the appointment of the US president’s son to the company’s board of directors.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet stablecoins on real-world events, from elections to sports results. The platform gained popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, when its activity and trading volume reached record levels.
Prediction markets enter the zeitgeist
Rychko noted that prediction markets have reached unprecedented levels of overall visibility in recent months. Prediction and polymarket competitor Kalshi’s New York City display, showing a live stream of the market dedicated to the city’s mayoral election, has attracted widespread attention, with the video garnering nearly 13 million views on X alone.
Rychko described the exhibition as “a public sign” and a “real-time reflection of collective belief.” “In the same way that stock tickers defined the financial era of the 1980s, prediction tickers are beginning to define the informational economy of the 2020s,” he wrote.
Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market platform that operates under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated event contracts exchange. The platform was recently featured in the long-running animated show. south parkcornerstone of pop culture, in an episode focused on US President Donald Trump.
Related: The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange invests $2 billion in Polymarket at a valuation of $9 billion
Prediction markets experience huge growth
Kalshi is not a cryptocurrency-driven platform, but it has joined a market segment largely driven by a crypto project.
Polymarket gained notoriety in late 2024 as its marketplace during the US presidential election attracted a lot of attention and capital. The service reached its highest number of daily active wallets in early 2025: more than 72,600 on January 19, Dune data shows.
The highest number of transactions on the platform occurred on December 27, 2024: almost 590,000 in one day. Although the platform has not returned to those peaks, it maintains strong usage. This month, it processed more than $1 billion in trading volume, bringing the cumulative volume to more than $15.7 billion, according to Dune.
Related: Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize Bets Under Scrutiny: Report
This trend is clearly visible when examining the total value locked on Polmarket. According to DefiLlama, the protocol now controls more than $194 million, 62% less than the nearly $512 million reported at the height of betting on the US presidential election, but also 2,325% more than the $8 million it had exactly one year ago.
Rychko said this constant activity underscores the appeal of prediction markets as DeFi’s most identifiable product, one that combines cultural relevance with real-world financial participation.
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